$BTC to $23-25k, then $15.8k? The ultimate bull trap?

已更新

Alright, as many of you've seen, I've updated my previous chart in the comments and have become short term bullish. I do think that BTC heads higher in the next few weeks tagging the 23.5k mark or mark. I was originally thinking that this would make the short term bottom of this move down, but now I'm questioning that thesis and I think that this is the more likely scenario that will play out... Let me explain.

Something never looked right to me when analyzing the Ichimoku cloud. Why is it trending down on the 2D chart? Also, if you analyze it from a 3D chart, the cloud is too thick with resistance to break through. So that leads me to believe we're not ready for the breakout higher yet.

From all of the charts I've seen people post, most people think we're going to 21k than instantly reversing lower. Then the other camp thinks that 23.5k is the line in the sand, and that if we break that, we've started a new bullish trend. This all leads me to believe that the most likely outcome is that we break both resistances and hit , and only after we don't break that, we reverse lower. I think that would lure the most people into the market. I think most people at that point would think to buy the dip (because again, the new bull trend is starting). However, I think rejecting , would just form a double top from the move back in August and setup a move lower (where we finally break the lows). [The other possibility is that we reject at 23.5k]

I think if this all plays out, and we can't surpass to form a new high, it sets up the move down that I was expecting to around 15.8k. I think the move up plays out before the middle of November and I think the move down would play out towards the back half of November bottoming sometime in early to mid December. I've added pivot points to look for changes in price action.

Only after this plays out, would I expect a large bear market rally (one that takes us back up to the 30k region).

I am long BTC and a lot of alts at the moment (because I'm expecting 50-100% exit pumps before we head lower). On any significant moves higher, I'll be locking in profits because I don't want to risk staying in the market if this plays out like I'm expecting.

Good luck. Let's see how it all plays out over the coming 4-8 weeks.

*then instantly reversing lower (clearly didn't proofread)

Still bullish. Think this was a fakeout lower, and we reverse higher. It's not time for 15.8k yet. We need to tag $23-25k. Let the short squeeze begin.

Still bullish. As long as 18.8k holds, higher we go. Just bought more alts here.

Here comes the bounce. Looking for a close back above 18.8k

Okay, didn't get the close I wanted. Going to give this a couple of days for price action to become more clear. Definitely a possibility that we just head down from here, but everything looks so oversold and everyone is so bearish that I still expect a bounce first. I'm 50/50.

Fully out of the market. Guess we're going to see 15.8k sooner than I thought.

This move has momentum. I probably won't bid 15.8k. We just broke down from a massive head and shoulders which is visible on this chart that I made:

I think there's risk of a move to 13.5k and want the market to settle a bit before I go long. I think there's just a lot of risk in the next few weeks, think it's better to wait until early December to go long.

Stocks have barely started falling, so if the stock market goes too, it'll take this market lower.

We might see a "pause" (minor support) at 15.8k

I did end up getting a couple of orders filled at $15558. Let's see.

Still think there's potentially risk lower, but the entry was good so I'd like to play it for a bounce. Think we should get a pretty good one

Updated idea: