BTC Week 2 Analysis—October 2023

2023年10月15日

Disclaimer:
Please be aware that the information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets carry inherent risk, always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser prior to making any investment decisions.

Introduction:
Welcome to our BTC Weekly Analysis for October, Week 2, 2023. This analysis offers continued insight into BTC price action, committed to providing an unbiased Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis for the greater trading community. Our objective is to offer valuable insights that complement your own analysis, empowering you to make well informed trading decisions.

Primary Assumption:
Our October, Week 2, analysis builds upon the data presented in our Week 1 Analysis. During the correction, which we initially assumed to be Minutte Wave 4, we identified three significant errors in our count, subsequently confirming that the correction was Minute Wave 4. To get a detailed account of this correction, click the chart bellow.

Consequently, we maintain that the count established during the Minute Wave 4 correction remains valid. Therefore, we have established a second count invalidation point at which we believe to be the beginning of Minute Wave 5.

Weekly Analysis:
Our weekly analysis takes place on a compressed 15 Minute time frame. In our previous weekly analysis, we anticipated a complex correction after an Extended Wave 3 and Wave 5, ultimately leading to Wave 5 forming as an Expanding Ending Diagonal.

To summarize from the completion of Minute Wave 3, Minutte Wave W unfolded as a Zig Zag correction, with an Expanding Triangle for Micro Wave B. Following this, an Impulse pattern emerged but failed to establish a new trend, signifying the commencement of the first Minutte Wave X. Price action then shaped a second Zig Zag, with an Expanding Triangle forming as Micro Wave B, and Sub Micro Wave E. Following the conclusion of this second Zig Zag, price action Impulsed once again but failed to initiate a new trend. Instead, it formed a Contracting Triangle, marking the end of the second Minutte Wave X. As market fear intensified, price action Impulsed down, effectively concluding Minutte Wave Z, marking the completion of Minute Wave 4, with price now residing in Minute Wave 5.

Minute Wave 5 commenced as an Impulse with an Expanded Wave 3 for form Minutte Wave 1. Minutte Wave 2 revealed market uncertainty as it evolved into a complex correction, with Micro Wave W forming a Zig Zag. Price action Impulsed upon completion failing to establish a new trend, instead, forming as an Expanding Triangle, completing the first Micro Wave X. Micro Wave Y assumed the form of a Zig Zag correction, with price action subsequently experiencing two impulses in opposite directions, completing the second Micro Wave X and Micro Wave Z of the correction, concluding Minutte Wave 2.

Minutte Wave 3 began with a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 pattern, resulting in an Expanded Wave 3 within an Expanded Wave 3, of Sub Minutte Wave 1. The correction that took place upon the completion of Micro Wave 3 became an Expanded Flat, with Wave B extending beyond the endpoint of Micro Wave 3. On completion of the the Expanded Flat price action Impulsed into the completion of Sub Minutte Wave 1, with price action now residing in Sub Minutte Wave B of Minutte Wave 2.

Forecast:
While predicting future price action is an ambitious endeavor, adhering to EWT rules and guidelines allows us to make informed assumptions about what price action may do. Currently, we assume that price action resides in Micro Wave B of Sub Minutte Wave 2.

Our hypothesis suggests that price action is in the process of forming a Triangle, with Wave D yet to complete, indicating the ongoing development of Sub Minutte Wave 2. Once the Triangle is fully formed, it will signal the conclusion of Micro Wave B, leading to an Impulse to finalise Micro Wave C and Sub Minutte Wave 2. Employing standard Contracting Triangle measurements, we can anticipate the price action target to align with the typical measurements for Wave 2, with a projected bottom approximately around the Yellow 0.707 level indicated on the chart.

Upon completing Sub Minutte Wave 2, price action will Impulsie into Micro Wave 1 of Sub Minutte Wave 3. Following a five-wave impulse, which may coincide with the Weekly candle high, price action will form a Zig Zag correction, guided by the Law of Alteration. This correction is expected to carry us through to the end of October Week 3.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, our EWT analysis for Week 2 has illuminated the evolving structure of BTC price action, building on the previous weeks observations. While predicting future market movements is inherently uncertain, our analysis points to a potential path for BTC price action.

Stay vigilant and use this analysis as a valuable tool to complement your trading decisions.