Bitcoin big picture: first up to 14000 and then down to <1000

2018年5月12日

I evaluated Bitcoin patterns since its top in December 2017 to get an idea of its overall movements. I was very surprised by what I found: if the analyses are correct Bitcoin will go up to 14000 by mid July and then go down to sub thousand levels by December. Let's see how the analysis work:

• ABC corrective pattern is made up of three waves: A, B and C.
  
• Wave A further consists of five waves. Bitcoin has completed these five waves by moving down from around 19000 to 6500 as shown in the chart.
  
• Wave B is made up of smaller a, b and c waves. Of these waves, Bitcoin has already completed the a wave and is currently in the b wave. Smaller wave c is likely to start soon and take Bitcoin to 12000 (if wave a = wave c) or to 14000 (if wave a = 1.62*wave c) levels. This will complete the B wave of the large ABC pattern.
  
• Wave C will start from 12000-14000 and take bitcoin down to sub thousand levels even if Wave C = Wave A as shown in the chart.
  

I am not sure if this is going to work out but it is a bit scary! Note that the analysis ignores everything other than Elliott waves and Fibonacci patterns. It doesn't, for example, consider resistance and support zones or other political or financial market issues.

What do you think? Is it possible?