eliminating the other options

已更新

1) indicators
we have be making lower high and lower low on both RSI and MACD
this confirm the ED (rising wedge) idea

2) pattern
We have the obvious inverted head and shoulder, it's located right under a supply zone, ideal position for a fakeout setup and a sharp drop
this also confirm the ED idea

3) Trendlines
We are now very far from both baseline, and a touchdown is to be expected

4)Elliott waves
wave 3 is kinda funny looking
not 100% sure that wave 1 isn't part of the downtrend, it is shape like wave i tho
Alternative count 1) would place 3 instead of wave i, we would have an entire wave 5 to come
Alternative count 2) wave iii is instead the top of wave 1

Invalidation of this scenario :
1) The ED breaks to the downside without reaching target 5 and either bounce off the channel or break through and reach the same II target
2) The ED breaks to the upside and reach 7400

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Hmmm...didn't took long to prove my count wrong !

So, for the positive :
We bounced of the channel and we haven't made a lower low
And the blue support from the first top also held

Neutral on indicator, RSI and MACD made a lower low, and money flow has turned negative on H4 but has bullish divergence on H2

For the negative :
We dropped out of the ED, so either there never was one, or we are headed toward the next blue line

What to watch for now :

Whether or not the rising dotted line of the ED is confirmed as resistance (bearish)

Whether or not the channel + blue line is a support (bullish)

Then I'll be able to figure out a new wave count

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Beyond TA, everyone is expecting a drop to 6300, i do have target there.
On the break of any of the lines under price, we would head there.
I haven't been very impressed by the inverted head and shoulder the past few month, most of them failed. I don't expect this one to complete properly.

A risky bet here is to be contrarian,
We could see this as a running flat, C has a neat 5 wave pattern and the money flow read of A confirms it, then the descending MACD support the position of wave 3 and 5 and B. There is no overlap in this count and wave 3 is at fib 1.6.

Looking at the Eth and alts chart, which didn't make a new high on wave B, this would confirms it, it also did a new low on wave v of C, which also confirms. And created bullish divergence on their respective charts.

Waiting for those indicator to break above or below the black line for confirmation

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