Aug 25

8月27日

Overview: The SP500 closed Monday with a red candle, erasing last week’s Friday gains. Durable goods orders were reported today, showing the highest increase since July 2020. This indicator reflects the amount of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods expected to last at least three years, such as automobiles, appliances, electronics, and machinery. An increase in durable goods orders typically signals business confidence and a willingness to invest in long-term assets. However, this rise was driven mainly by automobile purchases; excluding cars, the figure was down 0.2%.

Global liquidity has been increasing for the past 60 days. The last time we saw such a sustained rise was from the end of October 2023 to mid-January 2024, which marked the start of the current bull market. This is a bullish signal.

W: The BTCUSD price has reached the lower bound of the current range, 63k-64k.

D: Monday closed with a red candle. The lack of a lower wick is concerning, suggesting that bears pushed the price down throughout the day without giving bulls a chance to buy back. It closed slightly below the W level of 63k, at 62.8k.

4h: The price is at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands (BB). A rebound is needed, but it’s not happening yet. The price is trading below the W level. While this isn’t a significant issue for the W candle, it’s crucial for the 4h to stay above 63.1k.

1h: The RSI has touched the oversold level of 30. This is a bullish signal.

Alts Relative to BTC: There’s no significant divergence. Some altcoins corrected less (SOLUSD, NEARUSD) while others corrected more (SUIUSD, FTMUSD), but in the early hours of Tuesday, almost all have recovered to their highs after the recent pump.

Bull Case: This isn’t a bull trap, and we’ll see a climb on low trading volume. Whales might hold on, waiting for interest rate cuts, or they could start selling just before the cuts.

Bear Case: This is a bull trap unfolding, with fewer bulls willing to hold this price level.

Fear and Greed Index: 53.61. This is a 'no trade' zone if you prefer to buy low and sell high with the highest conviction.

Prediction: Undecided.

Opportunities:
AAVEUSD: At W level $128. Bullish.
MKRUSD and UNIUSD: Both are holding strong W levels that predate BTC ETF demand. Bullish.
TAOUSD: Drawing a MACD divergence on D and 1h, with the W level of $361 being rejected for the third time. Bearish.