Opinion: Not out of the water just yet

2023年2月2日

The bullish trend seems to hold for now and the sentiment is really shifting. Majority feels like the bottom is in for BTC.
I personally have a hard time believing this. I mean if you look at the bigger picture:

- another .25% rate hike;
- Rate hikes will continue for all of 2023 despite being smaller;
- No rate cuts all of 2023;
- inflation just 'less high' but still high;
- Quantative tightening still in play;
- economy still has to be impacted by the steepest series of rate hikes in history;
- A lot of domino effect still to come to light following all the FTX drama;
- Shady stuff around some exchanges that everyone is suddenly not mentioning anymore;
- etc. etc.

There are just so many clouds still hanging above all markets ESPECIALLY risk assets like BTC and altcoins. You just have to ask yourself why the hell would it start a bullrun in these conditions?
For now the charts look bullish but to me it feels unsustainable and maybe even manipulated. Markets are always forward looking but come on, bullish in january 2023 because in mid/ end 2024 things will START to get better? to good to be true IMO..

But i guess time will tell. Looking at the pitchfork about the big picture of this bear market + hugely overbought daily RSI we could now be facing a turning point.
I expect BTC to have some bearish months first before really starting a bull run. The halving is just to far away to ignore all these macro clouds.
The path i have drawn is a rough estimate of how i think next months will play out. i'm not saying this is exactly how it will move but i am saying i expect new lows before a breakout of the pitchfork.
Then, after all the bad macro has priced in a bit more, rate hikes are really paused and the halving is closer, i expect a breakout and start of bullrun.