Playbook 2018-09: BTCUSD
已更新
Monthly Playbook Longterm Outlook for BTCUSD
- Note chart is inverse
- Major price points are outlined in (blue). These are areas in which support/resistance/consolidation are expected.
- Technical Sentiment: Bearish
- Reversal pivot points: $6800 / $7100
- Major Demand Zone (s): $5900 / $5500 / $5000 / $4600
- Major Supply Zone (s): $6600 / $7800 / $8500 / $9800
Trading Strategy
- Assuming trend is intact, target short entries are at $6500-6600. We will cover in the 6k price demand zone, if and only if, we see either strong bullish divergence and net volume supports the move. Otherwise, we're in this one for the long haul, with eyes at the obvious 5k level, but more-so the $4000-4600 area.
- Trend may be compromised if price action crosses the 4HR Auto Fibb median.
- No shorting below $6200. No longing above $6800. Going against these no-trade trigger points requires documented exceptions and/or interim updates to the playbook
- Start accumulating spot at prices below 5k, while maintaining low leverage on margin long entries starting at 5k such that liquidation price remains below 4k.
Important Notes to Keep in Mind
- Entering major capitulation zone in which major whipsaws should be expected, if not regularly anticipated. As such, refrain from break-out trades in the event of whipsaw rejections in either direction.
- Unless scalping (trade duration < 4-6 hours), do not recommend trading on any time frame lower than the 2HR
- While we have major psychological support at 5k, market capitulation could drive prices to sub $4800 depths. No panicking allowed. Pay attention to net volume at major price points (blue).
Technical Analysis Review
September price action kicks off an impulsive bearish move with staggering momentum from $7500 to sub $6800 in mere hours. With a breakdown in the wedge pattern, dynamic support broke going into the first week of September, with prices crashing 10%+ in less than 4 hours. Momentum behind the sell-off was swift and bloody - making it extremely difficult to enter a short before prices were already sitting at weekly support of $6800. What we see now is strict consolidation, if not just a break in selling pressure.
The velocity at which price broke down and plummeted through fairly significant psychological levels was profound, with a few measured move patterns (some not shown for clarity sake) pointing to near-term movements back to 6k, while others point deeper, sub 5k. While BTCUSD has been fairly consistent with hitting measured move targets, we acknowledge that may not always be the case - and position sizes should be managed accordingly for over-extended moves to the downside when covering short and flipping long. With that said, we should start to consider covering short positions near 6k, dependent on the price action / overall price structure. Below 5k, we should have 80% of any short positions completely covered, if not already starting to build a long position.
Assuming the general market direction is correct and price action is to gravitate down - the landing approach near 6k (and looking even more forward, at $5500/5000/etc.) levels will be critical when it comes to managing target long entries. Playbook strategy is as follows:
- Violent moves continue to pierce lower with volume and momentum both supporting the moves. In this instance, assume any spot longs are short term, with conservative <1-2% profit targets.
- Price continues to grind and range in tight consolidation zones. At 6k, look for onset of some bullish divergence . Without strong bullish divergence and some sort of indication from the net volume that there is accumulation and impending reversal, then we're probably still going lower. We can probably expect a manageable descent into 6k with plenty of time to assess market conditions to determine if we think support will hold, or we still anticipate that massive capitulation that bears have been so patiently waiting for. We are accumulating spot below 5k. Trend is valid unless we see some sort of indication from the 4HR/8HR Cloud and/or 4HR Auto Fibb.
- Harmonic patterns have been absolutely fantastic during this bear market: starting with the bearish shark formation that led into the first sell-off from 20k to 10k, followed by the Bearish Gartley reversal when price could not recover above 15k. Now, as we approach the 6k support (again...), bears eyeing 5k, bulls playing for endurance - I can't help but notice how elegant a Deep Crab Harmonic would be. It not only lines up fairly well with fairly significant dynamic support/resistance lines, but also respects the Fibb levels, as well as major price support/resistance horizontal levels. If something like this were to play out (of which would take months, not days) then we have the short opportunity down, and the long opportunity back up - a great whipsaw for long-term swing trade.
- Indicator Notes: Flowrate Strategy currently showing an extremely bearish outlook - with selling pressure only strengthening. Monitor this on the 2HR/4HR for any bullish divergence and/or hidden bearish divergence for further continuation patterns. Price momentum has entered extremely oversold levels - but with having entered into this region with the impulse move to $6500, this seems to only support/acknowledge the strength in this bearish grip on the market. 4HR TK crosses (or on the 2HR Double) should be taken seriously. 8HR TK crosses should be interpreted as a market reversal, unless price is ranging/sideways - then it's more of a go no position + counter-trade the market signal. When in doubt, consider the 4HR Auto Fibb: above the median - trend is intact, below the median - trend is compromised. Any sideways movements should be taken advantage of with market maker bots, making sure to set buy/sell points in accordance to 4HR Auto Fibb high & low extension boundaries. When in doubt, defer to 12/26/66/144/233 EMA spread: bullish? bearish? consolidation? As well as the 4HR/8HR/1D clouds: TK cross? Cloud twist?
- Note chart is inverse
- Major price points are outlined in (blue). These are areas in which support/resistance/consolidation are expected.
- Technical Sentiment: Bearish
- Reversal pivot points: $6800 / $7100
- Major Demand Zone (s): $5900 / $5500 / $5000 / $4600
- Major Supply Zone (s): $6600 / $7800 / $8500 / $9800
Trading Strategy
- Assuming trend is intact, target short entries are at $6500-6600. We will cover in the 6k price demand zone, if and only if, we see either strong bullish divergence and net volume supports the move. Otherwise, we're in this one for the long haul, with eyes at the obvious 5k level, but more-so the $4000-4600 area.
- Trend may be compromised if price action crosses the 4HR Auto Fibb median.
- No shorting below $6200. No longing above $6800. Going against these no-trade trigger points requires documented exceptions and/or interim updates to the playbook
- Start accumulating spot at prices below 5k, while maintaining low leverage on margin long entries starting at 5k such that liquidation price remains below 4k.
Important Notes to Keep in Mind
- Entering major capitulation zone in which major whipsaws should be expected, if not regularly anticipated. As such, refrain from break-out trades in the event of whipsaw rejections in either direction.
- Unless scalping (trade duration < 4-6 hours), do not recommend trading on any time frame lower than the 2HR
- While we have major psychological support at 5k, market capitulation could drive prices to sub $4800 depths. No panicking allowed. Pay attention to net volume at major price points (blue).
Technical Analysis Review
September price action kicks off an impulsive bearish move with staggering momentum from $7500 to sub $6800 in mere hours. With a breakdown in the wedge pattern, dynamic support broke going into the first week of September, with prices crashing 10%+ in less than 4 hours. Momentum behind the sell-off was swift and bloody - making it extremely difficult to enter a short before prices were already sitting at weekly support of $6800. What we see now is strict consolidation, if not just a break in selling pressure.
The velocity at which price broke down and plummeted through fairly significant psychological levels was profound, with a few measured move patterns (some not shown for clarity sake) pointing to near-term movements back to 6k, while others point deeper, sub 5k. While BTCUSD has been fairly consistent with hitting measured move targets, we acknowledge that may not always be the case - and position sizes should be managed accordingly for over-extended moves to the downside when covering short and flipping long. With that said, we should start to consider covering short positions near 6k, dependent on the price action / overall price structure. Below 5k, we should have 80% of any short positions completely covered, if not already starting to build a long position.
Assuming the general market direction is correct and price action is to gravitate down - the landing approach near 6k (and looking even more forward, at $5500/5000/etc.) levels will be critical when it comes to managing target long entries. Playbook strategy is as follows:
- Violent moves continue to pierce lower with volume and momentum both supporting the moves. In this instance, assume any spot longs are short term, with conservative <1-2% profit targets.
- Price continues to grind and range in tight consolidation zones. At 6k, look for onset of some bullish divergence . Without strong bullish divergence and some sort of indication from the net volume that there is accumulation and impending reversal, then we're probably still going lower. We can probably expect a manageable descent into 6k with plenty of time to assess market conditions to determine if we think support will hold, or we still anticipate that massive capitulation that bears have been so patiently waiting for. We are accumulating spot below 5k. Trend is valid unless we see some sort of indication from the 4HR/8HR Cloud and/or 4HR Auto Fibb.
- Harmonic patterns have been absolutely fantastic during this bear market: starting with the bearish shark formation that led into the first sell-off from 20k to 10k, followed by the Bearish Gartley reversal when price could not recover above 15k. Now, as we approach the 6k support (again...), bears eyeing 5k, bulls playing for endurance - I can't help but notice how elegant a Deep Crab Harmonic would be. It not only lines up fairly well with fairly significant dynamic support/resistance lines, but also respects the Fibb levels, as well as major price support/resistance horizontal levels. If something like this were to play out (of which would take months, not days) then we have the short opportunity down, and the long opportunity back up - a great whipsaw for long-term swing trade.
- Indicator Notes: Flowrate Strategy currently showing an extremely bearish outlook - with selling pressure only strengthening. Monitor this on the 2HR/4HR for any bullish divergence and/or hidden bearish divergence for further continuation patterns. Price momentum has entered extremely oversold levels - but with having entered into this region with the impulse move to $6500, this seems to only support/acknowledge the strength in this bearish grip on the market. 4HR TK crosses (or on the 2HR Double) should be taken seriously. 8HR TK crosses should be interpreted as a market reversal, unless price is ranging/sideways - then it's more of a go no position + counter-trade the market signal. When in doubt, consider the 4HR Auto Fibb: above the median - trend is intact, below the median - trend is compromised. Any sideways movements should be taken advantage of with market maker bots, making sure to set buy/sell points in accordance to 4HR Auto Fibb high & low extension boundaries. When in doubt, defer to 12/26/66/144/233 EMA spread: bullish? bearish? consolidation? As well as the 4HR/8HR/1D clouds: TK cross? Cloud twist?
注释
Quick Update:- Apparent accumulation suspected with volume profile on 1H. Covered some short, hedged the rest on long. No deep exposure other than having somewhat opposing trades at the key POC. Simple to manage.
- Zooming out and looking at the 3D - we see a very strong twist in the Double Ichimoku. Adding to that, general speculation and sentiment remains strongly bearish.
- Revision to monthly strategy: any explosive bull moves up should be interpreted as real. However, weary of bull trap, so maintain proper position management.
Ultimately, I think that either of these scenarios (rough sketch) is likely to happen.
注释
Noticed an additional potential harmonic pattern that could play out, this one in favor of the bulls. I really like the potential for either of these scenarios to play out. Major channels / support / resistance breaches dictate control. Additional reason as to why we have our target hedged positions on both sides of the field, long at $6200 - short at $6700, with dry powder on the side to continue to accumulate via high frequency scalper/market maker bots to accumulate via profit. 
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。