The Bullish Case for BTC (Hidden Bull Div / Triangle)
There are several reasons (technically speaking) to be bullish on BTCUSD. Staying bullish though? As long as the bears don't come out of hiding!
Reason 1 - Hidden bullish divergence:
Hidden bullish divergences occur when the price sets a higher lower, but the oscillator hits a lower low. Contemporary TA chartists consider hidden divergences to be preferable to regular divergences as you're trading with the trend -- not against. The overall trend here is up. Despite there being lots of momentum towards setting a new low on price, the bears failed to break the low of $8650.
Reason 2 - Symmetrical Triangle / Bull Pennant
This is a double-whammy. There's a completed breakout on a triangle pattern that occurred after a leg up.
Technically speaking, the following observations are noteworthy:
- Descending volume during this period of consolidation
- Breakout sees increased volume (this still needs confirmation during the next 1-2 candles; the current increase is marginal)
As of this writing, there are several resistance points to watch. These are three price points where a large number of sell orders could trigger for TP:
- Resistance 1: $9565.1. Looks like we just broke this one! We have invalidated the potential H&S pattern that was forming since the start of the lower low.
- Resistance 2: $9,746.4 -- this is the current local high since the most recent bear move down. A break of this would be healthy and suggest continuation to the up side.
- Resistance 3: $9,900 - $10,000 -- there are two levels to be wary of here: $9,900 high set on March 12, and psychological 10k. A large number of sell orders could trigger just around here.
Targets:
- Target 1: $10,500 (target measured based on 1:1 against symm. triangle width at widest point)
- Target 2: $11,100 (target measured based on 1:1 against bull flag pole)
Other notes:
- A working group of regulators including senior SEC and CFTC officials are scheduled to discuss the matter on May 7, one of the people said. Tweet from Whalepool: twitter.com/whalepool/status/991428617669398529 . This may present significant price volatility to the entire crypto market.
- There could be a range of other news that may break, halting BTC's bull parade.
- There may be some FOMO from retail traders at 10k to push us past first target.
On the balance of probabilities, we're more likely to head higher.
Note that none of this is financial advice and is simply observations made around traditional technical analysis used by retail traders.
Reason 1 - Hidden bullish divergence:
Hidden bullish divergences occur when the price sets a higher lower, but the oscillator hits a lower low. Contemporary TA chartists consider hidden divergences to be preferable to regular divergences as you're trading with the trend -- not against. The overall trend here is up. Despite there being lots of momentum towards setting a new low on price, the bears failed to break the low of $8650.
Reason 2 - Symmetrical Triangle / Bull Pennant
This is a double-whammy. There's a completed breakout on a triangle pattern that occurred after a leg up.
Technically speaking, the following observations are noteworthy:
- Descending volume during this period of consolidation
- Breakout sees increased volume (this still needs confirmation during the next 1-2 candles; the current increase is marginal)
As of this writing, there are several resistance points to watch. These are three price points where a large number of sell orders could trigger for TP:
- Resistance 1: $9565.1. Looks like we just broke this one! We have invalidated the potential H&S pattern that was forming since the start of the lower low.
- Resistance 2: $9,746.4 -- this is the current local high since the most recent bear move down. A break of this would be healthy and suggest continuation to the up side.
- Resistance 3: $9,900 - $10,000 -- there are two levels to be wary of here: $9,900 high set on March 12, and psychological 10k. A large number of sell orders could trigger just around here.
Targets:
- Target 1: $10,500 (target measured based on 1:1 against symm. triangle width at widest point)
- Target 2: $11,100 (target measured based on 1:1 against bull flag pole)
Other notes:
- A working group of regulators including senior SEC and CFTC officials are scheduled to discuss the matter on May 7, one of the people said. Tweet from Whalepool: twitter.com/whalepool/status/991428617669398529 . This may present significant price volatility to the entire crypto market.
- There could be a range of other news that may break, halting BTC's bull parade.
- There may be some FOMO from retail traders at 10k to push us past first target.
On the balance of probabilities, we're more likely to head higher.
Note that none of this is financial advice and is simply observations made around traditional technical analysis used by retail traders.
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