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BTCUSD, Daily, Continuation of the downtrend?

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Due to a similar formation that has already occurred twice, I predict a breakout from the channel and further drops, maybe to the retracement of 13850, where there is a demand and a fibo retracement. Even stronger support levels are on the retracement of 10850 and on retracements lower than 9000 (also fibo levels). This construction is based on a channel, a false breakout, and a bounce of the downtrend line. Because the price bounced off the trendline triple (I count only main bounces), I think that it is the last or penultimate bounce. We are still in a downtrend. Following that, I would forecast consolidation-accumulation.

As my forecast is quite complex, chances are it will come true according to the arrows I have drawn. It is possible, for example, that we will have a head and shoulders pattern (or as I call it, a Dick pattern) + a rebound from the downtrend line, not from the bottom channel.

DISCLAIMER
It is not financial advice. It is only my own view of the market.

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So maybe we are realizing a double top as it was in earlier similar situations. Also take a look at the logarythmic chart.

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Yesterday was drawn an indecision bar, so we have to not take it as a very good short signal, but on the smaller framerates it looks like we have a distribution. Summarizing, can we short it? - Yes, of course, but it is not a high-quality setup.

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Why do I think that we have a distribution? I see a diamond formation, which can mean a trend change or a correction in the uptrend. A reminder: always use Stop Loss.