教学

Bitcoin Analysis - Textbook Case of Wyckoff Downtrend to $4,800

已更新

In my last chart, I had emphasized that the Wyckoff's Spring is likely at the $6,000 level (aka The Walls of Westeros) provided that price bounces from $6,000 and not any higher. Why is that? Well, it is important to remember that the Wyckoff's Spring needs to be a lower low.

Of course, this is all based on the assumption that Bitcoin is really trending according to the Wyckoff Events. If that is truly the case, then the current downtrend should also follow other Wyckoff rules that govern a Wyckoff Bear Cycle like distribution, breakdown and markdown.

Out of curiosity, I created the above chart with all those rules applied and it turned out exactly like what a textbook Wyckoff Downtrend chart would look like. Here is a link for you to compare it:
d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/market_analysis/wyckoff1/wy-09-distmarkdown.png

You can understand more about Wyckoff Market Analysis here:
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff_market_analy

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注释

The moment of truth is here. Remember, the bounce needs to be at 6,000 exactly if that is to be Spring. And if the wall breaks, then you already know where we are heading.

注释

Here is another point of view in the current situation. Click on the chart below to enlarge.

Bitcoin - Third Time Lucky Has The Answer!

The above does not supersede this Wyckoff chart or my previous ones. Sometimes, taking a step back lets you see more.

注释

Wonderful. Despite the Wall of Westeros (6,000 psychological barrier) has been breached, the Night's Watch is doing a good job repelling the White Walkers from further advancement into the North. If they can keep up for another hour, we should witness a reversal to the upside. This is a good spot to mildly add to your stash until we see confirmation of said reversal.

注释

Volatility has returned, no surprise there. Fundamentally, the market remains strong amidst huge selling pressure. It would seem that the bears are having a hard time pushing price down below key support level $5,800. While we are prepared to buy the dip at $5300 and $4800, we must not rule out the possibility of a reversal of this breakdown back to the "Third Time Lucky" triangle. Remember, the Bitcoin market never fails to astonish us.

注释

What did I tell you about the reversal, folks? The market is simply astonishing! Our "Third Time Lucky" chart is back in business.

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Updated Chart:

Bitcoin Market Flips! The Bull is Back and Poop is Dead

注释

Hi friends! Here is today's update on BTC. We are approaching a key resistance level where the bull might have trouble penetrating given the lack of volume. If the bull fails, the bears will seize this opportunity to claw price down to retest the regional lows of $5,755 again. Here is an illustration of the BTC 4-Hour chart of what might happen.

Note: I would be cautious and wise to pull out of this market at this level for the time being and re-enter at lower levels. That's all for today. Happy trading everyone!

交易手动结束

Since this is more of an educational post, I am ending all future updates pertaining to BTC trend development to avoid unnecessary confusion that might arise. This would be my last update to this chart. If you want be kept in the loop about my forecasts, I encourage you to follow me and check out my latest chart without the "Education" tag.