More "wait and see" (cautionary short term long)

2021年12月22日

"Wait and see" seems to be such common advice. Sometimes that is probably right, sometimes maybe not.

This, though, definitely feels like a wait and see moment:
- Firstly, the MACD cross, which usually precedes a pretty strong bull run.
- To counter that, there is a bearish divergence emerging on the daily MACD and RSI.
- Price is also now encountering a triple resistance zone from the 50k band plus the daily 200 EMA and also the current downtrend resistance line.
- If it breaks these it has another strong resistance at the 53k area.

That's 4:1 to the bears over the bulls. The red path looks most likely, with the orange path the next most likely.

However, I am backing the MACD daily cross and expecting the green line to play out. Maybe that is why I am so poor; unlike the rest of you rich, wise and clearly very handsome folk.

If the green does plays out, expect a stronger bearish divergence to develop, which will play out after this rally.

Obviously, not going to trade this until we get some confirmation. Just gonna...

wait and see.

2021年12月22日

注释

My mistake. That is not a bearish divergence; that is a hidden bullish divergence.

Good job nobody reads these or I'd have to delete and re-post to save face.

That evens it a little and makes the green path a touch more likely, I guess.