比特币做空
Emergency Short -35%!! (Part 2)
Hello my crypto people.
Again I want to give thanks to my two most influential Technical Analysis masters, MagicPoopCannon and Botje.
In this example I am proving that 1) we are still in a bear market, 2) It is a very risky decision to enter a long position, 3) Bitcoin prices has gone up mainly because of political factors rather than fundamental properties.
I don't have any political inclination towards any country or any political party so this paragraph will be based in scientific psychological facts, political strategies, and current political events. If you all remember, BTC's price started to rally when the trade war between China and the US intensified, however we all know that both economies have to settle and eventually end the trade war. This is more of a strategy for Trump where he creates a problem, blame the enemy, settle, and finally tell the people that he solved the problem that the enemy started (this is basic psychology in politics). Regardless on who is the bad guy (China or US) a settlement must come before the elections because Trump will definitely do everything to get re-elected. A settlement between China and U.S. should come sooner than later and it could be a massive catalyst for Bitcoin, bringing the price of crypto market down. There is another political factor in favor of the bulls which is the tension between U.S. and Iran with the recent problems with the Oil Tanker. HOWEVER!!! Let's give some focus in the technicals.
WEEKLY DOJI
----- Two weeks ago we initiated the reversal trend confirmed by the nice and beautiful doji candle combined with an extremely high level of the Stochastic, which historically represents an initiation of 35-60% correction once we reach these stochastic levels. (Go check yourself what has happened every time BTC reaches 80+ stochastic in the weekly chart)
THIS IS A FAKE BULL RUN!!!!!!
------Why I am so sure this is a fake bull run? Historically bull runs that usually happen after corrections happen at stochastic levels around 60-65, which I nicely circled. Right now many people is very optimistic that we are actually in a bull run but if you guys notice this bull run started at 80+ stochastic which gives me a solid evidence that this is a fake bull run and we will not grow organically to 20k yet, perhaps I am extremely negated that we will actually have a bull run to 13k.
WHEN WILL THE BULL MARKET BEGIN!!!!!!!!????
-------Big Triangle Consolidating Around December/JAN OF 2020. Bitcoin has shown a strong position and strong organic bull runs trigger near December, coincidentally where my triangle consolidates.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW???!!!!
-----For now I expect that the candles go back down near the EMA50 (blue line) which would effectively trigger the correction back to the 5.5k-6k level. Historically, every time that we reach current stochastic levels in the weekly chart a massive correction happens.
I am linking my previous idea where I make emphasis in the stochastic indicator triggering these massive corrections.
Please follow, and if you consider this a good and logic Technical Analysis give me a thumbs up!
Again I want to give thanks to my two most influential Technical Analysis masters, MagicPoopCannon and Botje.
In this example I am proving that 1) we are still in a bear market, 2) It is a very risky decision to enter a long position, 3) Bitcoin prices has gone up mainly because of political factors rather than fundamental properties.
I don't have any political inclination towards any country or any political party so this paragraph will be based in scientific psychological facts, political strategies, and current political events. If you all remember, BTC's price started to rally when the trade war between China and the US intensified, however we all know that both economies have to settle and eventually end the trade war. This is more of a strategy for Trump where he creates a problem, blame the enemy, settle, and finally tell the people that he solved the problem that the enemy started (this is basic psychology in politics). Regardless on who is the bad guy (China or US) a settlement must come before the elections because Trump will definitely do everything to get re-elected. A settlement between China and U.S. should come sooner than later and it could be a massive catalyst for Bitcoin, bringing the price of crypto market down. There is another political factor in favor of the bulls which is the tension between U.S. and Iran with the recent problems with the Oil Tanker. HOWEVER!!! Let's give some focus in the technicals.
WEEKLY DOJI
----- Two weeks ago we initiated the reversal trend confirmed by the nice and beautiful doji candle combined with an extremely high level of the Stochastic, which historically represents an initiation of 35-60% correction once we reach these stochastic levels. (Go check yourself what has happened every time BTC reaches 80+ stochastic in the weekly chart)
THIS IS A FAKE BULL RUN!!!!!!
------Why I am so sure this is a fake bull run? Historically bull runs that usually happen after corrections happen at stochastic levels around 60-65, which I nicely circled. Right now many people is very optimistic that we are actually in a bull run but if you guys notice this bull run started at 80+ stochastic which gives me a solid evidence that this is a fake bull run and we will not grow organically to 20k yet, perhaps I am extremely negated that we will actually have a bull run to 13k.
WHEN WILL THE BULL MARKET BEGIN!!!!!!!!????
-------Big Triangle Consolidating Around December/JAN OF 2020. Bitcoin has shown a strong position and strong organic bull runs trigger near December, coincidentally where my triangle consolidates.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW???!!!!
-----For now I expect that the candles go back down near the EMA50 (blue line) which would effectively trigger the correction back to the 5.5k-6k level. Historically, every time that we reach current stochastic levels in the weekly chart a massive correction happens.
I am linking my previous idea where I make emphasis in the stochastic indicator triggering these massive corrections.
Please follow, and if you consider this a good and logic Technical Analysis give me a thumbs up!
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