A much needed Bitcoin update! A while ago, I suggested that going long once the major diagonal resistances from the bear market were broken (on both log and linear charts) would be a profitable trade. Since then, Bitcoin has increased by over 50%. Links to some of those charts are at bottom.
Bitcoin is actually looking more bullish than I expected it would originally, and it's even taking some of its dominance back against altcoins. Here in this chart are just a few speculative options:
YELLOW (I actually favor this path) - Bitcoin continues to move up, only to find the previous bull market support as resistance (light blue). Currently, that level is around $6300-6500. If that breaks, I think we could see a quick blow-off towards $7400-7500, which would be caused by FOMO and stop buy orders. This liquidity would be necessary for bigger players to unload larger positions. After reaching that top, we'd head back down to test our new uptrend as support before eventually moving up again. This would be a little slow, but more healthy in my opinion.
PINK - Bitcoin blasts through all the resistances and actually gets back into the uptrend channel from the previous bull market, which would mean that we actually NEVER LEFT THE BULL MARKET, and the recent bottoming period was just a pit stop. I wouldn't complain if this happened, but I'd be surprised. I was also surprised when 4.5K was broken so quickly, so maybe this will happen, leaving everyone waiting to buy at lower prices dumbfounded and frustrated.
RED - Given how many altcoins have been behaving, I think it's also possible that Bitcoin makes one more bottom. This would result from a risk-aversion snowball effect that I've talked about in a recent post. Essentially, low caps started the selloff, and it creeps up the ladder until even Bitcoin starts dropping, and people capitulate. This scenario could possibly break our recent uptrend, and even send us to a new low - or at least cause a longer, more painful bottoming period. If a drop like this occurs, I would hope that our uptrend holds (and particularly the 4.2K area or at worst 3.8K).
If the cryptocurrency market is reversing as a whole, the Red scenario is very unlikely. If we are to follow what happened after the dotcom bubble pop (as I talked about recently on an Ethereum post), I think the yellow or pink scenarios are closer to what would play out.
This post is entirely speculation, and is not even a trade setup. I just want to see how this plays out, and wanted to post a new Bitcoin chart. Alright, that's it from me today!
-Victor Cobra
Bitcoin is actually looking more bullish than I expected it would originally, and it's even taking some of its dominance back against altcoins. Here in this chart are just a few speculative options:
YELLOW (I actually favor this path) - Bitcoin continues to move up, only to find the previous bull market support as resistance (light blue). Currently, that level is around $6300-6500. If that breaks, I think we could see a quick blow-off towards $7400-7500, which would be caused by FOMO and stop buy orders. This liquidity would be necessary for bigger players to unload larger positions. After reaching that top, we'd head back down to test our new uptrend as support before eventually moving up again. This would be a little slow, but more healthy in my opinion.
PINK - Bitcoin blasts through all the resistances and actually gets back into the uptrend channel from the previous bull market, which would mean that we actually NEVER LEFT THE BULL MARKET, and the recent bottoming period was just a pit stop. I wouldn't complain if this happened, but I'd be surprised. I was also surprised when 4.5K was broken so quickly, so maybe this will happen, leaving everyone waiting to buy at lower prices dumbfounded and frustrated.
RED - Given how many altcoins have been behaving, I think it's also possible that Bitcoin makes one more bottom. This would result from a risk-aversion snowball effect that I've talked about in a recent post. Essentially, low caps started the selloff, and it creeps up the ladder until even Bitcoin starts dropping, and people capitulate. This scenario could possibly break our recent uptrend, and even send us to a new low - or at least cause a longer, more painful bottoming period. If a drop like this occurs, I would hope that our uptrend holds (and particularly the 4.2K area or at worst 3.8K).
If the cryptocurrency market is reversing as a whole, the Red scenario is very unlikely. If we are to follow what happened after the dotcom bubble pop (as I talked about recently on an Ethereum post), I think the yellow or pink scenarios are closer to what would play out.
This post is entirely speculation, and is not even a trade setup. I just want to see how this plays out, and wanted to post a new Bitcoin chart. Alright, that's it from me today!
-Victor Cobra
