🔥 Bitcoin's Capitulation Expected: Bear-Market Low Target

2022年5月6日

A couple of days ago I made an analysis about my expectation on Bitcoin's reaction to the most recent FOMC interest rates decision. See my elaborate post below.

Whilst the initial reaction was bullish, we sold off very hard the day after (yesterday) the FOMC meeting. Whilst a lot of technical and fundamental indicators pointed bullish, we did not get what a lot of investors expected.

Lesson learned: when everyone is watching a certain area to hold, it will likely not hold. Same happened when BTC was trading at 40k in January.

In my most recent bullish analyses I noted that I expected a short-term bullish move, but was bearish in the long-term. The fact that we're likely to see a bearish break-out of my Bitcoin Pitchfork (see below) just moved my long-term bearishness a month forward.

If stocks continue their sell-off in the coming weeks, I'm expecting a bearish break out of the bullish channel / pitchfork pattern that BTC was trading in. If we lose this support, I think a capitulation event will likely follow. In
my opinion, if the current support (yellow circle) will hold it will only push the bearish break out back by a few days/weeks.

My bearish capitulation target area is the area between the Summer-21 low and 20k, see the green square. Note that the 200-week SMA will trade between 23k-26k by the time we arrive there. During ALL last cycles, the 200-week SMA has been touched at the lows at the bear market. This area marked the bottom of the bear market and the path from there as only been UP.

Share your thought below!