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Don't say we did not warn you

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Those who have been watching our profile since the start of our forecasts for Bitcoin might know that in November 2021, we warned about the potential top in the cryptocurrency market. Following that, we remained bearish on the asset and rode it down to $15,000, hitting one price target after another. Then, since November 2022 lows, we have been standing firmly behind the notion that we were witnessing a bear market rally in stocks and cryptocurrencies (while not arguing against more upside in the short and medium term; in fact, we said the final rally would be the most deceiving one). Throughout that time, we pointed out multiple signs that did not align with the genuine bull market. Furthermore, we highlighted a growing euphoria reminiscent of 2021 and many popular profiles here on TradingView forecasting parabolic rallies, no pullbacks, and “lifetime opportunities to buy.” As this was not enough, we drew attention to the fact that many of these profiles were the same guys who could not recognize that we were in the bear market in 2022 and kept pushing forward overhyped narratives regardless of the actual market situation (just to sell memberships and fulfill promotion contracts). Now, with things heating up quickly in the global markets and panic rising, we would like to take this time to say we might soon see again who these snake oil sellers are.

Overnight, Bitcoin dropped below $27,000 (on some exchanges below $26,000) on high volume, painting an ominous picture. On the daily chart, RSI broke below 30 points. While many people may say this is a time to buy Bitcoin because RSI reached an oversold area, we do not think so. On this particular occasion, RSI reaching the oversold zone is more likely to indicate the start of a new downtrend rather than buying opportunity (though we might see a shortlived rebound above $28,000). Additionally, MACD and Stochastic remain bearish too. As a result, we have no reason to change our bearish stance in the short term. Accordingly, we believe Bitcoin will likely continue lower to the area between $24,000 and $25,000 (and potentially even lower). We will update our thoughts as things develop.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. If Bitcoin drops below $25,800, it will further bolster the bearish case in the short term.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

注释

The latest data shows that the number of Bitcoin wallets with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC slightly declined yesterday, suggesting big players are liquidating some of their positions. That is a bearish sign.

注释

The second trendline is being put to a big test. If it fails to halt selling pressure, then expect much more weakness.