Bitcoin's short-lived Christmas joy

已更新

Morning traders!

I mentioned in the last update of my previous post that we were potentially forming an inverse H&S and that we needed to watch the wedge resistance, $3600 and volume because if we broke above the wedge, we would probably break above the H&S neckline. Well we broke through wedge resistance with volume and the H&S played out, although we never needed the full 38.2 fib retracement to form the right shoulder and give it juice.

My target remains around $3900 but I'll be reducing this slightly from my previous $3950 target because of 2 converging trendlines which I believe will guide Bitcoin towards it's ultimate launchpad as we drop lower into the channel we have been printing. The converging support trend line starts from our Q3 swing low and support fits snug with our recent trending support which has been holding since 25 November. The converging resistance trend line starts from our 15 October swing high and acted as support for our 15 November swing low when were still above 5k.

MFI, MACD, RSI etc are all overbought on the higher time frames and selling volume is drying up slowly so expecting strong resistance around $3900. We should also find resistance at our daily SMA30 which is very close.

Our temporary bottom target does change slightly with the recent upwards correction. If you look at our drop from $5658 to our channel support $3473, you will see that we had a 38.2 fib retracement on the following leg up to channel resistance which gives us a 138.2 Fibonacci extension target of $2640. On the next drop from channel resistance around $4409 to our 14 December recent swing low ($3122), we again should have a 38.2 fib retracement (not sure it will reach 50 fib) which again gives us a 138.2 Fibonacci extension target of $2630.

I think we should reach this target before finding a temporary bottom since these fib extension targets correlate so well.

I think once we reach $2630/40, we should have a break from the converging apex and a strong move above the descending channel to the upside. I think we still need one last big move down so that the RSI will print a larger bullish divergence.

Good luck and happy trading!

Previous update's inverse H&S:

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If you look at Binance, we're already at channel and converging trendline resistance. It will be interesting to see if we drop from here or $3900 (on Bitstamp).

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We have bearish divergence right up to the 4H MFI and StochRSI signalling a weakness in trend as we approach our reversal target.

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Target reached at $3924 then strong rejection as expected. We still have strong bearish divergence on the 2H, 3H and 4H MFI so expecting a strong correction, potentially a 61.8 fib retracement to around $3428.