30% correction to 70k next for Bitcoin ?? — December 3rd, 2024

2024年12月3日

** short term forecast, days and weeks ahead **

On the above weekly chart price action leaps up 40% since all of 30 days ago. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. The include:

1) Price action and RSI support breakouts.

2) Regular bearish divergence. Multiple oscillators now print lower highs with higher highs in price action.

3) Price action is outside Bollinger Band on the weekly. Remember 95% of all price action trades around the mean, which is currently $70.2k

4) Hanging man candle print. A perfect example of buyer exhaustion.

What does this means for alt tokens? That depends. Overbought tokens (XRP, Dogecoin, XLM, etc… ) they will join the correction with Bitcoin. A select few will enjoy the liquidity that comes from them. Do you know which?

Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure.
Is it probable? No.

Ww

2024年12月4日

注释

Bulls have seven hours to prevent a Gravestone DOJI candle confirmation.
A confirmation will make this idea "active"

16hr

2024年12月4日

注释

Micheal Saylor has increased the leverage on his fund from a buy in at the mid 40s to almost 60k (November). Bitcoin was at this level in September just gone. Should you not know why this is important:

1) He buys Bitcoin
2) He borrows cash using his Bitcoin as Collateral
3) Borrowed cash is used to buy more Bitcoin
4) The "buy in" price per Bitcoin increases slightly with every purchase using borrowed money.

What was just described is no different from a retail trader clicking the "increase leverage" button on the perpetual future. This is all well in good in an uptrend market... but what if price go down?

A week or so later WW receives a public message from a retail trader "Just lost $GETTEX:25K on Doggy coin future, Elon said... what do I do wW? I'm in full panic, the money was for my Children, please help"

Yes, that message was received and shared with permission.

Leverage is to avoided at all costs in crypto. The market is just far too volatile.

If Bitcoin price action collapses to a level near Micro strategy buy in, you're then going to see forced liquidation on scale never seen before.

2024年12月4日

注释

A lot of messages on this one...
It is not yet active, nor will it be until Bitcoin strikes the 115k area as per 2022 forecast.

2024年12月5日

注释

Imagine a day 4 - 6 years ago when Bitcoin just shrugs off $5k in 2 hours. That would be called a flash crash. Today it's a rounding error.

2024年12月5日

注释

Can the bulls stop this 5 day Gravestone DOJI candle print?
And prevent me from updating the status of this idea to "Trading Active - Save yourselves"

2024年12月9日

注释

The bulls have indeed prevented the Gravestone DOJI print. However market participants remain fickle, almost like they don't know what happens next.

2024年12月10日

交易开始

Trade officially active (probably rockets up now)
Market structure is confirmed broken.
Return next year probably around the month of March for new opportunities in Bitcoin.

Long from the $70k area.
Keep in mind Micheal Saylor's fund is levered up to the eyeballs in longs with a buy in around $62k, should price action dip to 62k, Microstrategy will default with forced Bitcoin liquidation orders to cover the debt crushing the market even further. You can track that likelihood from here: saylortracker.com

2 day chart

2024年12月10日

注释

PS: to void this trade price action must close a 2 day candle body (no wicks) above $101.4k

2024年12月11日

注释

As mentioned above, a candle body closing above 101.4k voids this particular trade idea.

2024年12月12日

交易结束：到达止损

We can close this idea now with the confirmation of market structure remaining intact.
Off to 115k next.

2024年12月12日

注释

Market structure broken again, it needs to hold 101.4k. No ifs not buts, a must hold for continuation.

2024年12月18日

注释

Market structure back under 101.4K

If and that's a big IF... daily closes print under this level, the 70k area test is likely.
However, it would be improbable.

2024年12月20日

注释

Micheal Saylor's fund is only $GETTEX:25K from liquidation!

Would be bricking it if I were him.

He buys the top like clockwork, all the hallmarks of a gambling addict.

2024年12月29日

注释

Price action cannot close under 94k and remain bullish between now and Wednesday January 1st.
Should that happen, price action will continue correcting until $84k

$115k remains the top for the current bullish trend with anything above $72k a hold of market structure.

2月26日

注释

Expect support at $80k... however it is not the bottom of this correction