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BTCUSD potential ~35% downside

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Everyone is getting very excited about the BTC bull market, but this chart shows that we are in fact at a clear resistance. We have downward pressure from the 200d moving average, at the top of a falling wedge, and hitting a .382 fib.

If breakout doesn't occur here, a sell off could send us back down to the previous support at the 200w moving average, around 5400.

Wait to go long for a clear breakout here, or have patience for 2-3 months and expect a breakout in Mar-Apr.

I've also included a green arrow for breakout trajectory here... which arrow looks more plausible?

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Oh yeah, you can also see the pink line in RSI showing a big hidden bear divergence.. that makes 4 technical bear signals.

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One more indicator, .786 retrace from last bull rally is right at 5400.

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A look at the end of the bear market from 2014.

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We have indeed begun descent from yesterday's prediction. Setting buy zone between 5800–5100. Will update as needed.

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Critical moment here, BTC going for another push in an attempt to breakout. Interesting to see where the daily closes.

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2 days after breakout, really struggling against 200d MA. I've redrawn lines to be a channel within that resistance. If we break resistance here, I will go long.