alternative scenario

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right now it seems like every trader is adamantly subscribed to one of two camps: (a) "blow-off top incoming, we're going to the moon!" or (b) "10k incoming, everyone will suffer a slow and painful death!". admittedly i'm more often associated with the former (see my blow-off top prediction). but i have my reasons.

here i'd like to offer an alternative to this "two-party system". it may not be as sexy as a never-ending series of green candles straight into orbit, or a relentless chain of long liquidations that leaves a bloody trail of red directly to zero. but it might be more likely. with a market that's slowly maturing (lumbering around between a 2 and 3 trillion dollar market cap) i think the days of such extremely overreactive scenarios are numbered.

with cycles lengthening, i think a perfectly plausible scenario would be a continued consolidation in this range before the market makes its next big decision. i do still happen to believe that next decision will be a continuation into the last leg of this bull market, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

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the origin of the white dotted trendline:

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watching for potential formation of bullish hidden divergences (RSI) here:

this COULD provide some validation/evidence of a more bullish scenario:

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the theory of lengthening cycles would support this idea of a longer periods of consolidation between impulses:

bull market may run longer than you think

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some people refuse to believe BTC is in a consolidation pattern. for some reason they think that it's too large a range, or that you can't have a new all-time-high during consolidation. to those people i say: look at the volume. this is what volume looks like during consolidation, almost invariably. compare that with volume after the prior two cycle tops.