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BTCUSD: Futurology

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This is another very prophetic post, like my ETHBTC one. I think that we will get an approval by the SEC, but, since the ETF won't bring money into Bitcoin right away, price will fall back to weekly support at 1139 give or take. Bottoming there, while big players accumulate positions, until the market is ready to trend up vigorously again.

The market is likely to frustrate the most people, so, I think first, it'll spook the short sellers by going up after the news, to then fall and stop out all longs, right before bottoming for some time.
My game plan, I'm holding my positions for 1 year at least, so, I'll trade around them using margin. My preferred vehicle to hedge the BTC decline is ETHXBT longs. I'll be looking to accumulate a hefty ETHBTC long position, in the order of 30%, when we have a decent enough retracement in it. It's close to weekly support, and in a weekly uptrend, with potential for a monthly rally after May, which would align with this prediction taking place, if ETHEUR rallies or doesn't fall, while BTC falls or doesn't rally as much.

Reccomendations: If conservative, sell down from 50% to 20% account long in BTCUSD and do nothing. Sell also down from 50% to 20% account in ETHEUR and do nothing. Then add back on dips or if they keep trending up proving you wrong.
If more brave, follow my game plan. Don't sell but hedge the decline with ETHBTC longs when safe.

Best of luck!

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

注释

I started hedging with ETHBTC margin longs, added my 2nd position today. First yesterday at 0.01433.

注释

Note that we topped after the last purple box uptrend signal time ran out...exactly one day later.

We've breached the immediate support below. We need to move back above 1186 to remain bullish, else BTC might test lower support levels before resuming the long term uptrend.

Until Nov-Dec 2017, we maintain a bullish bias with a target at 3300-3800.

Since we're oversold, if we hold, and today's high (on close) tomorrow, we might start to recover rapidly going into the event and after the news. If this happens, once above 1186, we could confirm a new uptrend signal with a target at 1370.70, to be hit roughly in 10 days. We'll have to wait and see.

We have weekly support here, and also a low volume support level below. If we don't go under 1056.20 the weekly trend remains bullish overall. Keep in mind this week is already a range expansion decline, we'd need to see how the week closes to gather more information about the state of affairs in BTC.

Good luck!

注释

So, we absolutely nailed this idea. The market went up first, since many people were concerned and going short, when they all gave up and suddenly all became bulls, it dropped under $1000 rapidly, after the news came out. The approval or rejection by the SEC doesn't really change anything in the short term, so my scenario played out the way I had envisioned it, despite not being correct about the SEC decision.

I hope you can now appreciate the qualitative analysis conducted here, and the simplicity and effectivenss of Tim West's methodology.

We now have a new fundamental key level, a powerful reference point, and a few 'conditionals' that need to play out (or not) to tell us what the market will do. My preferred course of action is waiting, and looking to reenter ETHBTC longs (I had closed in profit after BTCUSD's drop slowed down for a nice 5.5% account profit).

My drawdown is only 3.5% from peak equity, thanks to my short term margin long in BTCUSD and the ETHBTC hedge long position (also using margin).

Cheers.

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Things could become boring, let's wait and see