BTC and BCH Fork-Related Market Psychology Hypothesis

2017年11月12日

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Assumptions:
1. The majority of transactions for BTC and BCH are completed by speculators, because:

• High fixed costs in entering a profitable mining cycle means miners enter the market based on their long term projections from the fundamental aspects of the coin, not short-medium term TA.
  
• An exponential uptrend in trading volume is likely spurred by dumb money entering the market after seeing basic price uptrends. This comes after a greater deal of publicity to cryptocurrency on mainstream media.
  

2. The majority of Miners are NOT Speculators:

Major buy and sell volumes have coincided with the classical MA Intersection Point Strategy, easily understood by new traders. Given the previous assumptions, it can be contended that a significant portion of transactions on the BTC market have been done by speculators seeking short-term profits.

Now before you tell me that I am speaking the obvious, this is why the former fact is important.

There are 3 major factors at play in influencing the downtrend of BTC:
1. (real recession) BCH Mining and Fork: Incoming BCH fork gives investors a real reason to withdraw their position from BTC and invest into BCH.
2 . (Inflated recession) New Investors: High trading volumes through-out bitcoins rise to 7.5kUSD means people held bullish positions in BTC and will likely want to panic sell (arrow (3)), leading to a higher down-sloping gradient - otherwise known as an inflated recession.
3. (Inflated uptrend in BCH) New Investors: Along with the real value gained in BCH, people will likely just want to surf the uptrend in BCH and make a quick 10%. This will lead to many people withdrawing their positions in BTC just out of euphoria (inflated boom).

Projected Outcome
Given most of the market is speculative, and the tendency to buy at the dip (as in the China ico ban), a significant volume of buy trades will occur at a certain price of BTC. As with the current recession, the bullish trend will be inflated by short-term speculators jumping on the uptrend. This happens every 2 weeks.

Support Price: Likely close to 5k given current trend lines that every newbie trading BTC will have drawn.

2017年11月12日

注释

Fundamental analysis and projections in the aftermath of BCH pump:

In the past few hours BCHUSD has jumped to 3 times its initial value and now begins descent. This saw the rate of recession for BTC value fall faster than expected.

In the aftermath of a failed hard fork to SegWit2x, the holders of BTC come out to not be purely speculative, but most are actually invested into actually creating maintaining BTC as the store of value that it was intended to be.

What does this mean? It means that people will have more confidence in investing in BTC for the future, because there is less risk of the whole market shapeshifting and hurting their investments.

So how can I make money from this? BTC will continue to increase in value as the market settles from crypto-hype and investors seek long term gains from a stable digital asset. The forking of BCH and the price volatility in its wake will ultimately drive investors with real money away. Furthermore, the essence of BCH is currently much too easy to mine, even after the coming fork. It will plainly be too inflated in a short period of time. Basically, if you have real money and have the patience to wait for more than 15 minutes before selling, invest in BTC.