ALT SEASON OR BTC BULL RUN?
已更新
They say people only see what they want to believe, that markets exist to make fools of the overly hopeful...
Well, half of the crowd is calling for an alt season, and the other half for a new BTC all time high. IMO both groups are jumping the gun as we are still in a downtrend! In order for either to occur BTC needs to enter a sideways accumulation phase first.
On the log 1D I see a clear uptrend & downtrend, based on which I can assume we will narrowly escape this downward spiral in mid-April and have ourselves an alt-season. Why not a BTC bull run? Simple - we can't start another BTC run-up until we consolidate, and historically we see that when BTC consolidates, alts flourish! BTC has yet to move sideways whereas many alts have been bottomed out for months already.
Of course, neither alt nor BTC can flourish with the low volume we're having lately - we need a newfound public optimism in the cryptosphere to proceed. Furthermore, for 2018 to be the biggest year for crypto yet, we will need institutional money to enter as well, which we all know is waiting for the green light from regulators. With most of the FUD from this past quarter exhausted, & though its contradictory to my opening sentence, I feel HOPEFUL for the remainder of 2018 :).
Just my thoughts, happy trading!
Well, half of the crowd is calling for an alt season, and the other half for a new BTC all time high. IMO both groups are jumping the gun as we are still in a downtrend! In order for either to occur BTC needs to enter a sideways accumulation phase first.
On the log 1D I see a clear uptrend & downtrend, based on which I can assume we will narrowly escape this downward spiral in mid-April and have ourselves an alt-season. Why not a BTC bull run? Simple - we can't start another BTC run-up until we consolidate, and historically we see that when BTC consolidates, alts flourish! BTC has yet to move sideways whereas many alts have been bottomed out for months already.
Of course, neither alt nor BTC can flourish with the low volume we're having lately - we need a newfound public optimism in the cryptosphere to proceed. Furthermore, for 2018 to be the biggest year for crypto yet, we will need institutional money to enter as well, which we all know is waiting for the green light from regulators. With most of the FUD from this past quarter exhausted, & though its contradictory to my opening sentence, I feel HOPEFUL for the remainder of 2018 :).
Just my thoughts, happy trading!
注释
Just wanted to add that I don't necessarily believe that the alts bullrun will last from April until June as encapsulated in the box on the chart. Rather, that box is a time frame in which I believe the run will start. The duration of the actual run itself is beyond the scope of this analysis.注释
Looks like we broke through the bottom and support turned into resistance. Sad to see, but lets see if I timed the time period for alts season correctly!
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