BTC long run

2018年2月16日

Ok, here we are again.

We have seen BTC having a very good bullish rally over the last 10 days, but there are still things to consider before we can say we are completely bullish.

- For the next target of the actual bullish short term trend, BTC will have to achieve somewhere around 12K, this, considering the target of the inverse H&S pattern which is put at the same distance the head has to the neckline, but from the broken neckline, once the pattern is confirmed.

- The H&S target will also take us to test the long term bearish trend that started in December 17. From here, as it is a very strong resistance and has failed to broke it in the past, is almost sure we will have a strong retracement to the 8.5K level, which will be the .682 Fibo level of the current bullish impulse, and will also match the neckline support which hasn´t retest yet.

- When we are in the 8.5K, we will have to be very careful and watch closely how the market develops as from here we will define if we are in a bullish market, or the blood bath will get worse and longer. This because, I´m projecting that the bullish rally to 12K and the correction to the 8.5K area will correspond to Wave 1 and Wave 2 of the new bullish cycle.

- The 8.5K area must support strongly as it will be the .682 Fibo retracement of Wave 1, and this is the maximum level of retracement Wave 1 should test, sending the price back up with high volume inside Wave 3 of the cycle, that will have to break the 12K resistance to confirm the bullish trend.

- If BTC achieves to break in a convincing way the 12K area, we will see price going up to the 18K area, and it will be very probable that BTC will reach a new ATH around the 25K area, after having corrective Wave 4.

Levels of the Elliot Wave analysis were projected all considering price resistances, acumulation zones and Fibo extensions.

- If price fails to break 12K in what may be Wave 3, or if it goes below the $7.5 - 8K in the correction of Wave 2, the long term bullish trend idea will be cancelled, confirming that we are inside a bigger correction, this may send price to the 6K area to retest the last dip, and probably lower.

Chinese year will be tomorrow and we may expect fresh money entering the market over the weekend or the next week as have been happening over past years.

Trade carefully.