We are still in the middle of Descending Channel on BTC

2019年12月19日

Nowadays, I see that a huge bunch of price forecast is flying over Bitcoin future price. There are pessimists who believe BTC is likely to fall 1 k's and die and also optimists who believe price will break out the current channel and lead new ATH until 2020 halving. However, The true establishment should be based on multi-year trend analysis , I believe.

2017 ATH rally resulted in 3ks (point X to A) might be a true guide for the current situation analysis. We know that First channel of bearish trend (Blue-line channel) in 2018 lasted more than a year to recover. Take a look at the volatility inside the first channel until the accumulation zone. The most significant indicator of the trend is the high price volatility, repetitive lower lows and support price becoming the resistance.

Now, we are still in the middle of second channel of another bearish trend (orange-line channel) , witnessing high price volatility & repetitive lower lows that we saw in 2018. Descending triangles that I attached on previous chart shown below is still active and parallel with the ideas I stated:

I remember that everyone was yet saying the bitcoin is dead. Nor it was dead in 2018, neither dead now. We will always see this kind of trends until bitcoin fully becomes a real , stabile, globally-accepted reserve money currency. I accept that there are huge problems about regulations, illegal use & decentralization risk that is cared for governments and central banks, -but god's sake-, bitcoin is on the way of demolishment of centralized finance capital system, price volatility and so huge amount of manipulation is so normal for now. This is not a real sign of bitcoin death, I would like to explain.

As we get back to our analysis we still not reached the end of the 2nd channel as you see in graph and I can roughly say that we are about to pass 2020 halving inside this channel, so do not hope 100.000 $ price will be reached prior to 2020 halving. No, it certainly won't be. 2020 halving will not satisfy those dreaming of moon. I assume that we will yet be getting into accumulation zone after July'20.

In the beginning of accumulation zone I predict that we will be witnessing 4k $. My estimations are based on that One full year is the average timeframe for the bearish trend. As a conclusion, this means that we will be in a bearish trend until the 3rd quarter of 2020 regardless of the halving.

The historical evidence is apparently shows us this, all we need to do is see the right things and not become an unrealistic dreamer. The next rally in late 2020 might be a high-record rally though.
Also Keep in mind that we are still below 200MA under a death cross and the low volumes are still effective on prices. Second bearish channel will be a real headache for all bitcoin-investors as bitcoin itself also should overcome severe milestones until the next rally.



***This analyse is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***