BTC Chart Analysis and Thoughts

2020年5月16日

BTC appears to have confirmed upward resistance along the ceiling of the downtrend channel. This channel touch is a bit different as it clearly made two attempts and was strongly rejected on both occasions, printing a double top in the process. This could indicate a steeper more sudden drop rather than the gradual price drift lower as I think double tops are not only easily recognized as bearish patterns, but the implied move to the downside from a double top is one of the easiest and reliable to plot for even amateur traders. With that said, I'd still expect channel support to hold as buyers step in. Several support zones are littered throughout the 8k region. But If volume at the lower channel support is only within average amounts, it may just be enough to move us back to the bottom of the double top instead of past it. I think a lot of traders are expecting a bigger move to 7500-7800 which I think would be strong support should we break 8k. This could very well be the case but if volume spikes in the mid 8's we may get a fomo snowball effect of people jumping the gun. Back on the double top pattern idea, if price can make a higher high I'd be more hopeful. Breaking and closing above the channel is key. I'd expect a flood of longs to re-enter at a high volume move above 9600 and daily close above the channel.

Personally I think it needs another catalyst to move higher, whether that's more fed money printing or the tariff war comes back into the picture I don't know, both could be enough. But I'd make a bigger and more confident long term investment if additional economic stimulus was passed by both the house and senate. I know everyone's tired of hearing it since we've been hearing it now for years. But you really do need more of this institutional money and other high net worth individuals to confidently enter the arena with a LONG approach like Paul Tudor Jones and Novagratz. The old school BTC whales have controlled the tops and bottoms for too long. As more big money comes in with a long term investment belief, they will be buying the dumps at 10k and I personally can't wait to watch the whales of old lose everything right as BTC makes it's biggest move yet :D

2020年5月17日

注释

Update:

We have a clean channel break. 2x hourly volume in the move up through channel resistance. After the break there has even been a couple spikes down to the top of the channel testing this as a new support zone. Hourly MACD cross is bullish, waiting to see the 6 hr and 1 day follow through. Volume is critical here. The KVO on the 1 day was just barely starting to dip below the zero line. We wanna see a bullish crossover here to confirm the move higher. If you don't already have a position and are looking to open one in either direction, just remember--this is a highly emotional trading zone. Price will be volatile here as fear and greed will test your better judgement. Don't bet the farm, always leave room for averaging down if needed. GLTA. I'll update again at some point.