Maximum Pain BTC Prediction

2018年6月30日

This is a speculative chart built on the premise that markets seem to seek out the maximum pain for the participants, so that is what I have tried to model here.

First of all we have a situation where breaking the previous low of Feb 6 has finally turned the vast majority bearish. As such, for maximum pain, it should go up now, and go up quickly. I put my first target just above $7800 as a stop-loss sweep / liquidity hunt of any shorts still left open from those levels back at the end of May.

Breaking above those levels may turn more people bullish, so of course the market should cool down there, and slowly retrace back down to lower levels, breaking the spirit of all the people who just opened long trades at the break out. I've put this B retracement down at around $6850, but for maximum pain, it may go deeper in order to really bring the bears back out and give them confidence to open up their shorts with max leverage for the ride down to $5000/$3000/$1300 that everyone KNOWS is going to happen.

Which of course then won't happen, but instead, for maximum pain, the price should shoot up quite quickly to break through the 12K double top from February. Again, by breaking through that level many many people will be all aboard the Bull-Run-Train and confidence will return and longs will open.... and that would be a great time to cash out with maximum liquidity.

Which will then be followed by the slow grind back down to $5000, and maybe even lower, as the market is left to cool again.

Just an idea. Definitely not trading advice.