Bitcoin: 50K Slow Mo Break Out?

2021年9月5日

Break outs usually occur quickly as do rejections off of resistance levels. What is going on here? If this is a 50K break out, it is extremely slow which may have something to do with the lower than usual volume associated with a holiday environment. Here's what to do, and what not to do:

1) Baby sit. If you are long from a recent trade signal, there is nothing to do here but watch. If price continues to linger, that is usually a sign of strength since resistance is often rejected quickly. What you need to see is a strong close into the 51's or higher.

Baby Sit? What I mean by this is be prepared to adjust IF price presents the WRONG look for longs. That can unfold in the form of a bearish pin bar, a large bearish outside bar, or the break of the minor range support at 47K. If you are in a swing trade especially, you can adjust by taking a small profit or loss, tighten your stop, or reduce your position size to lower the risk. IF Bitcoin retraces from here, 44K is the next relevant support.

2) Price is either going to break higher (favored by the structure) or NOT. AVOID getting stuck in hope mode if price goes the wrong way. Do NOT over react to any frivolous information. There is TONS of it on public forums. Let price in relation to the current range and structure be your guide, NOT people. Do not forget that ANYONE can call themselves a "guru" and look "smart" thanks to the random nature of the market. "Everyone is a genius in a bull market" is an old saying and applies more than ever in this highly stimulated over bought environment.

Keep in mind many alts will be in a similar situation and require that same type of action and adjustment. Most of them do not trade on their own, they follow the lead of Etherium and Bitcoin. IF Bitcoin retraces off of 50K, most alts will most likely pullback as well. Think of your alt trades as a mini version of a Bitcoin trade.

In a holiday environment, markets can be very slow, erratic and indecisive. Keep in mind that ALL markets are driven by the PERCEPTION of the future, which is governed by emotions, NOT logic or rationality. If you are consuming and acting on the same information as the majority of participants, you are more likely to react to the obvious rather than anticipate higher probability locations and setups.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.