Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

8月1日

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

The price of Bitcoin has fallen amid the escalation in the Middle East and the decision by the US Federal Reserve to keep the key interest rate unchanged. Previously, during the prolonged July rally, the BTC price approached the upper boundary of the descending price channel but failed to break through. This was followed by a correction. Currently, the price has retraced to the 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels, where sellers are attempting to push below the local support level of $62,000. We anticipate a retest of the ascending trendline support, which will determine the direction of the next price movement. If the trendline fails to hold against the sellers' pressure, Bitcoin's price may continue to decline into the 1H and 4H Imbalance zones. These zones have significant gaps at the horizontal trading volume levels that need to be filled. Within this range are also the 0.61 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, where we expect the local correction to end, provided no new fundamental risks arise, which we will discuss below.
For the price of BTC to resume its upward trend, it needs to overcome the dynamic resistance line of the EMA50 on the 4H chart and consolidate above the upper boundary of the descending price channel, where it has been for the past five months. A stimulus for the resumption of growth could be the release of new inflation data in the US.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price continues to move within a descending price channel and has locally formed a Double Top pattern. If, during the retest of the lower boundary of the price channel, BTC's price breaks below it, we would expect the Double Top pattern to play out with a move corresponding to its height. The targets for this move could be a return to the 1D Imbalance zone. There, we anticipate a retest of the lower boundary of the price channel, a trend reversal, and a resumption of growth.
If, under the influence of fundamental factors, the local correction evolves into a global one, BTC's price might retrace to the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels. This would close the gaps in the horizontal trading volumes in the 1W Imbalance zone through trading activity.




💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels

The index of fear and greed is in the neutral zone - 52.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $2,209 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index increased to 56.16.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks of orders in the order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 55,000 - 60,000
🔴 Supply zone: 70,000 - 75,000

Levels for long positions:
60,000 - retest of the trend line and large support block
55,000 - 57,000 - large support block
50,000 - psychological level of support

Levels for short positions:
70,000 - psychological resistance level
72,000 - large resistance block
75,000 - large resistance block
80,000 - large resistance block




📊 Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve System has once again left the key interest rate unchanged. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the possibility of a potential rate cut in September, which is good news for all high-risk assets. According to Fed representatives, inflation in the country has moved closer to the target value of 2%. A catalyst for renewed market growth could be the release of new inflation data in the US, which would increase the chances of an interest rate cut in the near future.
At the same time, geopolitical factors have repeatedly negatively impacted Bitcoin's short-term price dynamics. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure from the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, if the geopolitical situation resolves without a major war, Bitcoin's price could quickly resume its upward trajectory.


🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:

➤ 14.08, 15:30 - Consumer inflation index (CPI) in the USA for July.

➤ 18.09, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate.


📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:

The correction in the cryptocurrency market continues. Our trading Indicator, as always in advance, predicted the current price action and gave the most profitable entry points into positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was:
BTC +9.51%
ETH +6.91%
SOL +15.45%




In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement: