The BTC Project 2019, Phase 01, Edition 01.

2019年5月5日

Hi,

I confess not to be an experienced TA (technical analysis) as stated under my profile, but a keen student with limited experience and success\failure.
So I thought, why not treat my journey of trading and learning, a documented project and after a year or so, my progress is documented with both my success and failures and most importantly my learning curve.

To do a good job of how I present the journal requires some standards (coming from an IT Consultant background, it becomes a natural thing to do

I'm thinking the TITLE has to be related to each published article with links all the way to the beginning, to the very first one, this being it.

So the "Title" standard will be "BTC Project - <phase xx>, <edition xx>"

The commentary will also have a standard - to be drafted and tweaked as I go.
The charts, screen shots with 3 varying charts based on the scenario - I'm thinking of 3 different chart types with or not, with additional links or screenshots added to support the hypothesis.
The charts could be...
a) Monthly, Weekly or Daily charts with varying indicators
b) 12, 6, 4, 2, or 1 hour candle stick charts
c) Single or 2 split screen charts with an a) or b) combination.

So lets go and I hope you contribute with your thoughts as well to help me and others for potential success.

I do see people also trying to make money with subscriptions and good luck to them. My goal is to be good with TA and trading, after that, I have no idea.
For now, the scope of the project is TA on the rise and fall of this BTC trend going all the way to the top (next bubble) and bottom (if Im around long enough or be motivated enough) for the next life cycle.

So lets start with a few screen shots and commentary.

First topic, the trend.

Milestones Observations:
1) Monthly chart, April candle closed just above the 21 EMA and next monthly candle so far is above the 21 EMA; 21 EMA = 5300. Noted 50 EMA = 4023 (strong support); On BLX;
2) Weekly chart, 50 EMA which acted as resistance has been broken\past and can potentially be the next support level; 50 EMA = 5480; On Binance);
3) Weekly chart, RSI hit previous bull trend indicator numbers;
4) Weekly and Daily chart, hit previous NVT high number for bullish trend;

Observations indicators:
1) Daily chart, 21 EMA acting as support in this bull trend; 50 EMA is the next support below it;
2) BTC in channel which is supported by the fib. pitchfork and SMA\EMA ribbon;
3) 4 hrly chart forming a triangle indicating to me some consolidation taking place; Chart drawing demonstrates target to be 1.618 fib. extension, refer to drawing;
4) Some complimentary patterns in the 4 hrly chart for the upstream channel, everything seems to fit well for the upward\long sentiment;

Chart for part 1 &3 observations;


Chart for part 2 & 3 observation;


Chart for part 4 observation;


Chart for Milestones Observations;



Possible scenarios;
With the GREEN ABC line most probable;

2019年5月6日

交易开始

watch out for the double top. If it holds, then the triangle is intact.

2019年5月6日

注释

It turns out in all this, there was a Gartley pattern.