The Great Bitcoin Crash: Huge H&S neckline looming under BTC
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Looking at the day chart, we see Bitcoin forming a gigantic H&S pattern, and the candles are going straight towards the neckline at around 7300USD. The volume pattern is unusual but this isn't sufficient to reject it.
This might be the result of a huge dump by the Tokyo Whale, if you want to know more about it I encourage you to Google it.
If it goes through the neckline, the traditional calculation leads us to -7173USD, which of course is impossible. An alternative measure, using the average drop of 29% calculated by Bulkowski (2005), instead brings us between 5183 and 5694, depending on whether this could be considered a bull or a bear market (IMO, this is still a huge bull market). However, 5% (bull market) to 13% (bear market) of the H&S he measured went down 45% or more, which would bring BTC down to 4015 or less. Once the trend ends, the price tends to soar, going up average 51% (bull market) and 45% (bear market). The average number of days before the ultimate low is 41.
It's good to remember that those numbers are for the stock market. This is the crypto world, which it just like the stock market if it was pumped up on a cocktail of steroids, methamphetamine and crack cocaine. This means the ultimate low and subsequent rise could be more dramatic and reached a lot faster.
Of course, if BTC falls, everything falls. Ethereum already busted the neckline of it's H&S and seems to be waiting after BTC before continuing lower.
Happy shorting!
Bibliography:
Bulkowski, T. N. (2005). Encyclopedia of chart patterns (2nd ed). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley.
This might be the result of a huge dump by the Tokyo Whale, if you want to know more about it I encourage you to Google it.
If it goes through the neckline, the traditional calculation leads us to -7173USD, which of course is impossible. An alternative measure, using the average drop of 29% calculated by Bulkowski (2005), instead brings us between 5183 and 5694, depending on whether this could be considered a bull or a bear market (IMO, this is still a huge bull market). However, 5% (bull market) to 13% (bear market) of the H&S he measured went down 45% or more, which would bring BTC down to 4015 or less. Once the trend ends, the price tends to soar, going up average 51% (bull market) and 45% (bear market). The average number of days before the ultimate low is 41.
It's good to remember that those numbers are for the stock market. This is the crypto world, which it just like the stock market if it was pumped up on a cocktail of steroids, methamphetamine and crack cocaine. This means the ultimate low and subsequent rise could be more dramatic and reached a lot faster.
Of course, if BTC falls, everything falls. Ethereum already busted the neckline of it's H&S and seems to be waiting after BTC before continuing lower.
Happy shorting!
Bibliography:
Bulkowski, T. N. (2005). Encyclopedia of chart patterns (2nd ed). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley.
注释
Next significant stop if it goes under 7650 appears to be is 6000...
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