BTC Daily Signals

2019年4月30日

The chart is split into Daily (left side) and 4 hrly (right side)
Observations:

a) Strength in the signals
A number of strength signals indicate that on the daily, we are not maintaining strength in the upward direction, the signal is getting weaker which is also reflected in the sideways movement
i) The daily RSI is indicating in the up momentum but weaker strength
ii) The daily Momentum indicator is approaching zero (32), the up momentum is dropping off
iii) The daily MFI indicating less $$ coming in, hence the price is moving with weak force
iv) CCI (commodity channel index) hitting zero meaning there is no dominant energy in the market. Note: -100 indicates dominant trend in the down side and +100 is moving towards the up side.
We seeing weak retrace to the down side and little strength in the upside.
v) MACD histogram is going to support the downward movement

b) EMAs
i) Daily EMAs are converging towards the same range, indicating strong support. It looks like in the 4700 and 4800 range.
Depending on the rate of decent of BTC, will determine the convergence of these lines.
ii) Daily 50 and 200 EMA will be the first major support.
iii) On the 4hrly, the 200 EMA also lines up with the red line which is a strong support. Hence 4950 to 5000 is potentially a nice buy in area
iv) Further weak signals? then on the daily, blue line (long target) of 4000 to 4200 is to wait for.

Conclusion:
We have weak retracement and weak on the up side. I have drawn 2 black boxes to show how long it took in this area to break up (showing strong resistance)
I am guessing similarly that the box on the right side will take just as long to break the support as it took resistance, in this range.
5000 is the short term target. After that we should look again at the indicators and trending.
My guess, it will bounce to the 5200s range and then make another slow retracement to the next EMA\Support line of 4700\4800 range.

NOTE: Many exchanges show different information especially Bitfinex and Bitstamp, critical information. I'm using Binance data as its one of the largest exchanges and hence I see this mitigating the extremes.

Feel free to like and apply comments.

:)

2019年4月30日

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Looking at a weekly chart.
Observing we are still in the down ward channel however moving towards the 100% level, which indicates a trend reversal. I suspect the major support touches will bounces would push them into the up or bull trend.

2019年4月30日

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This probably explains why its getting weaker. Not to forget that the markets really determine the trend, in terms of adoption, etc and really the metrics as to the use of BTC has not increased to make it go up.

2019年5月1日

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Good pickup. It also fits in with other trends eg. fib pitchfork

2019年5月1日

注释

Further updates and observations:

On the daily:
a) Strength in the signals >
i) The daily RSI has slightly gone up to 61%
ii) The daily Momentum indicator is approaching zero (30), the up momentum is dropping off
iii) CCI ( commodity channel index) is dropping as I write this, 29.
In the 4 hrly, things are different, momentum is upwards (short opportunity)


b) EMAs on the 4 hrly for 1 day movement observation
i) 15 EMA looking to pass upwards over the 50 EMA
ii ) On the 4hrly, the 200 EMA also lines up with the red line which is a strong support. No change

c) Pickup on formation of a BAT Harmonic formation with target 5400 lining up with previous support and also on the fringes of the fib pitchfork sell region.

Conclusion:
RSI, CCI, DSO all say buy in (sell at next resistance), target 5400.
BAT formation supports the 5400 target
EMAs supports the 5400 target.

2019年5月1日

注释

2019年5月1日

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CAUTION:
If the BAT formation is completed and is a bear signal (blue line) the path leads to the completion of the H&S. and hence the target there is a minimum of 4765

2019年5月1日

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Comparing from the original chart.

2019年5月2日

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More updates:

2019年5月2日

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2 Possible Scenarios
1) if rejected at the 5400 scenario, heading for a H&S.
2) if it passes, then its going towards a 3 Drive ABCD Pattern.

2019年5月2日

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As previously mentioned, I identified a BAT bearish formation. With the BAT rules, path C to D can be 1.618 (=5417) or 2.618 (= 5511). I was more bearish or cautious but its possible that with the current bullish momentum will take it to the Fib 2.618.

2019年5月3日

交易开始

It looks like the price at 5600 for the BAT pattern is completed and not rejected. Hence plan B is the 3 Drive ABCD pattern as the fib. measurements also agree. I have now opted for this pattern and did not sell because of the bullish atmosphere still in play. I have 5800 as the target and I will sell slightly short of this.