TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN: PREDICTING PRICE MOVEMENTS!

已更新

⭐Before we dive into the new #BITCOIN analysis, let's talk about the different types of breakouts from my perspective.
You can see a schematic of the breakout types on the chart.

👉Breakout Type 1: A full-bodY candleY completely crossing the level.
👉Breakout Type 2: More than 50% of a full-bodY candle crossing the level.
👉Breakout Type 3: Three consecutive closes above or below the level.

❗Note 1: By "level," we mean any static or dynamic level.
❗Note 2: If one of the above breakout models occurs, the condition for a decline or growth is confirmed.

⭐Now let's move on to the #BITCOIN analysis:
👉BITCOIN on a 4-hour timeframe👇

🔰Bitcoin is sandwiched between numerous support and resistance levels!!!
Analyzing short-term movements in this situation is smarter than long-term movements.
Naturally, by passing through resistances or supports, the chart's form becomes clearer for making longer-term decisions.

✅Bullish Scenario:
As long as it's above the BULLISH trendline, breaking 67035.52 and closing above 67759.05 confirms the start of growth (on the 4-hour timeframe).

🎯In this case, #BITCOIN could see the following targets:
Target 1: 69105.16
Target 2: 70378.62-70614.35
Target 3: 72978.81

✅Bearish Scenario:
Breaking the BULLISH trendline on the 4-hour timeframe.

🎯Bearish target: The lower arm of the wedge pattern (numerically approximately equivalent to the price of 64120).

⭐Note: For now, we consider the lower arm of the wedge as the maximum decline. It's essential to review the price behavior if this level is reached. It's important to note that breaking the lower arm of the wedge is equivalent to entering a deep bearish phase in BIT.

🔄This analysis will be updated throughout the week.
❤️Don't forget to like and comment❤️

注释

🔄#BITCOIN analysis update - July 31
⏳Based on the 15m time-frame:

🔰As you know, based on the primary analysis, #BITCOIN is interacting with its 4-hour timeframe BULLISH trendline. And this trendline is a very crucial support.

🔰In this situation, examining the price behavior in lower timeframes within this area is essential.

🔰On the 15m timeframe, #BITCOIN has formed a wedge pattern on the mentioned trendline, which has broken upwards. On the other hand, the weakness of momentum in the MACD is also noticeable.
And also, with this growth, it has moved above its daily support level of 66164.14.

🎯So, #BIT can continue its growth towards the targets of 67035.52, 67861.81, and ultimately 70378.62-70614.35.

❌Like every scenario, this growth scenario also has a stop-loss.
The stop-loss for this growth scenario is the breakdown of the BULLISH trendline with a slower slope on the 15m timeframe.

👆👇If the stop-loss is activated before the growth targets are realized, the trend will change from bullish to bearish.

🎯The BEARISH targets in case of the activation of the growth scenario stop-loss are, respectively, 65326.87, 64390.34-64671.06, and ultimately the bottom arm of the 4-hour timeframe wedge pattern (refer to the main analysis).

注释

🔰Analyzing the Impact of the Latest #BITCOIN Update on a 15-Minute Timeframe

🔰The stop-loss for the bullish scenario was activated when the slower BULLISH trendline on the 15-minute timeframe was breached.

🔰As I mentioned, if the stop-loss for the bullish scenario was triggered, the trend would shift from bullish to bearish.

🔰This is exactly what happened, and all three targets of the bearish scenario were reached (full targets).

🔰The final target was the lower arm of the 4-hour timeframe wedge pattern, which the price reacted positively to after hitting it. This positive reaction needs to be analyzed to determine if further growth will occur or if it will re-enter a bearish phase.

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🔰In lower timeframes, structures change rapidly and require frequent updates.

🔰For example, regarding the 15-minute timeframe movement of #BITCOIN, the formation of a double top pattern on the 5-minute timeframe, followed by the breakdown of the support at 66164.14 (15-minute timeframe pivot), signals the start of a decline earlier than the breakdown of the slower-sloped trendline.

注释

🔄#BITCOIN analysis update - August 1
⏳Based on the 1H time-frame:

🔰**"With the recent DROP in BITCOIN's price over the past couple of days, we've reached a crucial support level on the daily timeframe that I've mentioned in previous analyses. It seems that BITCOIN could bounce back from one of these support levels:

✅Support 1: $62,731.31 - $63,019.78
✅Support 2: The midline of the daily downtrend channel (exact price not specified)
✅Support 3: $61,092.23

🎯And initiate a rally towards the following targets:
Target 1: $63,824.96
Target 2: $65,338.00
Target 3: $67,035.52"**

...........................
👉"The stop-loss for the growth scenario I discussed in the previous image is the breakdown of the midline of this daily timeframe channel. If the stop-loss for the growth scenario is triggered, a deep drop in #Bitcoin to the bottom of the channel is expected."

注释

🔄#BITCOIN analysis update - August 2

👉"Oh, did you see what happened?!🤯

👉The market started a sharp rise exactly from the first support level that I mentioned, and as predicted, it touched targets 1 and 2🎯✅

👉I gave you this growth signal in the most bearish market condition. So it has a special score😅

❓Do you agree to have an update on #BITCOIN today? Will it continue to grow or is a decline on the way? Comment if you agree."👇

注释

🔄#BITCOIN analysis update - August 2
⏳Based on the 4H time-frame:

👉"As predicted in our previous analysis, BITCOIN has initiated a new BULLISH TREND after bouncing off the support level of 62,731.31.

❗For now, we anticipate the resistance at 67,035.52 to cap the current BULLISH movement❗

👉To sustain this growth and potentially reach a new all-time high, BITCOIN must break through the resistance of 67,035.52 on the 4h timeframe💲✅

🎯If this condition is met, #BITCOIN could sequentially target the following levels:

Target 1: 70,614.35
Target 2: 71,976.68
Target 3: 72,978.81
Target 4: 79,325.37 (new all-time high)

⭐We will discuss the stop-loss for this bullish scenario, as well as short-term price movements on other timeframes in a separate analysis."

...........................
⏳Based on the 15m time-frame:

👉"In the short term (today and tomorrow), based on the 15-minute timeframe, as long as the price remains above the bullish channel shown in the figure, there is a tendency to grow towards the targets of 66572.37, 67035.52, and finally 67800.24.

👉If the specified channel's low on the 15-minute timeframe is broken downwards (a valid break), the stop-loss for the short-term growth scenario (not the long-term) will be activated, and we will likely see a short-term decline to the prices of 63215.33, 62731.31, and ultimately 61092.23.

👉The long-term growth conditions remain in place as long as the price stays above the midline of the bearish channel on the daily timeframe."

注释

🔄#BITCOIN analysis update - August 3

👇👆"We previously discussed both bullish and bearish scenarios for #BITCOIN in the short term.

🚀As long as the price remained above the 15-minute timeframe BULLISH channel, we should have considered long positions.

👇✅However, it failed to provide a strong confirmation and subsequently broke below the channel's support, which triggered the stop-loss for the bullish scenario and confirmed the entry into a bearish phase.

⭐The price continued its decline, reaching the final bearish target of 61092.23.
From the confirmation point to the target, this decline represented a 4% profit for short positions✅💵💵💵

⏳Currently, BITCOIN has bounced off the target that marked the endpoint of our short-term bearish plan.
Consequently, we need to update our #BITCOIN analysis to determine whether this upward movement is temporary or sustainable."

❓"What do you think about #BITCOIN ? Do you think it's going to keep dropping or start rising? comment below!"❓

注释

🔄#BITCOIN analysis update - August 4
⏳Based on the 1H time-frame:

👉"Based on the formation of a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour timeframe and the potential for a triple divergence confirmation, the market could experience an upward movement.

❗However, this growth is anticipated to be temporary within the context of a larger bear-trend.

🎯Potential growth targets are as follows:

Target 1: 60915.40
Target 2: 61979.86
Target 3: 63264.14
⚠️Target 3 is considered the maximum potential growth for now.
Subsequently, the market is expected to resume its downward movement towards the long-term target of 55385.

✅The lower arm of the wedge or the 58568.35 support level is likely to serve as the starting point for this temporary upward movement.

❌The stop-loss for this bullish scenario is determined by the MACD indicator. If the MACD forms a lower low, the bullish scenario is invalidated, and the market will continue its bearish trend towards the specified target."
snapshot

🔰Overall Analysis🔰
The text suggests a potential bullish scenario for Bitcoin based on a bearish wedge pattern formed on the 1-hour timeframe, coupled with the potential for a triple divergence. However, this bullish move is expected to be temporary and part of a larger bearish trend.

注释

🔄#BITCOIN analysis update - August 5
⏳Based on the 1H time-frame:

🔰"Let's look at yesterday's update, which was right before the sharp #BITCOIN drop.

🔰The lower arm of the wedge pattern was a significant support level that could have caused a temporary rebound. However, I explained that the overall market trend was bearish.

🔰To avoid getting caught off guard by the market, we also considered a plan for a decline without a temporary rally.

🔰That plan involved the breakdown of a triple divergence, with a lower low being formed compared to the previous low on the 1-hour timeframe MACD indicator. This is exactly what happened.

🔰And this confirmed a sell signal without a temporary rally.

🔰Usually, in this situation, we see a sharp decline, which is exactly what happened.

🔰Our target was 55,382.62, which was achieved.

🔰In the next figure, you can see how we confirmed our short position after concluding that the market was going to decline."
...........................
⏳Based on the 1m time-frame:

🔰"Last night, after the 1-hour timeframe MACD confirmed the bear-trend (initial view), I looked at the 1-minute timeframe.

🔰After retesting the wedge pattern (pullback), I noticed weak momentum in the MACD (higher high in price but lower high in MACD). In this situation, the breakdown of the bullish trendline of the last rally (MACD trendline) on the 1-minute timeframe gave a sell signal.

🔰The target we had from the higher timeframe, which was 55,382.62, offered a risk-to-reward ratio of 8.

🔰Who else caught this drop?"
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Explanation of the terms:

1-Breakout: When the price moves below a support level or above a resistance level, it's called a breakdown.

2-Divergence trendline: A trendline that shows a discrepancy between the price and a technical indicator, often signaling a potential trend reversal.

3-1-minute timeframe: The smallest time interval used in technical analysis, showing price changes every minute.

4-Confirmed the sell signal: Indicates that a technical analysis signal has been validated, suggesting that the price is likely to continue moving downward.

5-Pullback: A temporary reversal in the direction of a trend.

6-Momentum: The speed at which the price of a security is moving.

7-Risk-to-reward ratio: A measure of the potential profit of a trade relative to the potential loss.