BTC 1D Analysis and thoughts aloud for the next six months

2021年10月19日

This morning the price of BTCUSDT reached $62998 than fulfilled the expected target for growth from our previous idea.

However we wanted to see this growth after minimal correction, but it was not given, the buyers showed that they have enough forces for growth and they do not need correction for "rest".

Such force and purposefulness of buyers at once suggests that the Bitcoin price will soon update maximum and will go white route to $80-90 thousand per BTC for the beginning.
This scenario fits very well in our "Alternative scenario of price movement for 2021" from 01.06.2021. Recall, when we wrote that scenario, there was despair and moaning at the cryptocurrency market, that everything was gone from all sides, and deposits were dropping by -50-80%, while BTCUSD price was forecasted to drop to $10-20tis, that's why we gave such a name.
But so far, the idea works out very well.

What is the news background on the crypto market now? Positive from all sides: trusts bought Bitcoin up to their ears, ETFs accepted, etc. And we don't read the news and don't get into it, there are already so many of them that they break through all our information shields :)

But in my mind, Deja vu from 2018. Who traded then will agree with us, or not, but we can discuss it in the comments.
Back then, in 2018, 4-6 different ETFs were supposed to be accepted , but the cherry on the cake was supposed to be Bakkt, which was supposed to trigger a rise from $6000 to $20000 and everyone was waiting for it. Bakkt launched in mid-October 2018 and already in November we got a massive drop from $6400 to $3200 ... Believe me, for those who lived then with news hopes for growth — it was very painful for the deposit. The level of pain for the deposit can be compared +\- to the period of fall May-June of this year.
Well, how not to brag?) We were in shorts then to the full and our portfolio — will confirm it, so everything that we write is from our experience in the crypto world.

Today 10/19/2021 Bakkt loses over -6.4% on the first day of public trading on the NYSE. This is either a coincidence or a signal from above, but there as it is)

We called the area of $62000-63000 a critical zone for the growth of BTCUSDT, because it can start the formation of the second top of the global reversal pattern here. This scenario is bad for small speculators, because there will be no fast profits, but it is very good for big clients, because they can take a lot of BTC for cheap from the small players. The minimum target for this scenario is around $12-16k per BTC and it fits schematically into the fractal that we presented the idea at the beginning of the year in February 2021.

Also, the fact that Bitcoin is most likely selling on the rise in consolidations can tell us the delta of the trades. The higher the price, the bigger the skew towards selling in consolidation.


If a global correction starts in the coming days, then the maximum attention should be focused on the $31500-33000 zone. There will decide the future of crypto-market on 2022 and accordingly the continuation of falling by the red scenario or activation of the blue scenario and the beginning of a new growth wave.

Morality: there are a lot of analysts and specialists with their own ideas, as well as a lot of "made-to-order" news and ideas, which are released in the media space when it is necessary to deceive the majority at most, so the big uncles could earn money.
Include critical thinking to the maximum, do not feed on the hope that the market "has to do something" or "alts have to catch up with the bitcoin" or some other generally accepted phrase — this is a cruel and unregulated market and no one owes anyone anything.
Some will see here "Fight Without Rules" and some will see "Squid Game" — everything depends on you and your discipline. If you slack or overestimate your power by taking too much leverage or risk, you will lose everything and no one will return your deposit.

Everyone knows that there are long and short positions, but there is also a most difficult position — waiting. This is exactly the position we are in now. We patiently wait for activation and confirmation of one of the scenarios that we have planned ahead.
We trade probabilities and are never 100% sure in one of the scenarios — it is this lack of commitment to a particular possible scenario and the absence of fanatical attachment to the crypto projects give us the opportunity to win and survive in the crypto market for over 5 years.
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Since 2016, we have been analyzing and trading the cryptocurrency market.
We transform our knowledge, trading moods and experience into ideas. Each "like under the idea" boosts the level of our happiness by 0.05%. If we help you to be calmer and richer — help us to be happier :)

2021年12月10日

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2022年1月23日

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