BTC price prediction : A volume analysis

已更新

After the yesterday's post for BTC, I would like to add another one based on Volume Analyses. I'm using two indicators: Trading Volume and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).

BTC has been moving in a descending channel since October 2021 where the bear market had started. The downtrend is supported by continuously increasing (selling) volume.
In the same time, the CMF decreased aggressively from positive to negative values.

Since the last drop in mid June 2022, BTC has been ranging in $20000-$24000, a quite narrow range.

We can observe four interesting things:

A double bottom being formed with two bullish candlesticks (with very high volumes): Piercing line and Inverted Hammer. This is a first sign of a local bottom (maybe also a global one?)
A sharp rise in volume while prices range indicate a potential end of the current downtrend. Or at least, it is a sign of weakness.
CMF values has continued to increase from a very low and negative value, since mid June 2022. Now, it is approaching zero (but still negative). It is welknown that when CMF goes from
negative to positive in a strong way, it has the potential to signal strong institutional buying power.
RSI broke its trendline. It would show that the strength of market sentiment is improved.

Comparing to what happend during April-August 2021, we can see similar signs for the current BTC's movement. Although, the drop last year is just a correction and not a bear market's downtrend. Today, BTC is still in the channel. However, with the above points, I expect two scenarios:

(A) BTC will successfully break out the channel and go to reach again the wickless weekly resistance (around $30000). My short and mid-term targets are $24000 and $30000, respectively.
For long term holder, in my opinion, it would be better to wait for a successful breakout with a (confirmed) positive CMF value, to accumulate BTC.
(B) BTC will be rejected by the upper trendline, loose the current support $19000 and move to the (next) lower one, around $16000. Still, i'll expect a breakout here and BTC will going back to (A) scenario.

The revisit of $12000 seems hard to imagine to me. But everything is possible, specially in cryptos.

I hope that this post could help your trades. Thanks in advance for your comments.

注释

BTC tries to hold the current support $19000. Desicive moments is about to come with FOMC meeting on 21st Sept. Let's see what will happen.

In my opinion, the markets are priced in with a rate's increase of 0.75% (some analyses mentionned 80% of chance that this scenario will happen).

If an increase of 1% (20% of chance) happens, then blood bath continues and BTC will fall the the next support $16500, very likely.

注释

BTC is holding the current support $19000. Today, it makes a rise of 5% and tries to break out (again) the descending channel at $21000. If successful, we can expect a small bounce to $24000.

注释

Current support still holds. Yesterday 29/09, BTC was decorellated to stocks (SP500): BTC was slightly up while SP500 still dropped hard.

注释

BTC held the $19000 support. It needs to break the current resistance $20000-$20400 before heading $23000.

注释

We can see an inverted hammer with very high volume. This indicates a strong buy pressure and a good sign for BTC to break the current resistance (EMA 200W).