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BTC Likely to Stall Soon at 22,500 to 23,000

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Primary Chart: Fibonacci Channel on Daily Chart

BTC is likely to stall at the zero line on the Fibonacci Channel above. The zero line represents the entire down trendline that has contained price since the all-time high. Unless BTC is ready to reverse is long-term downtrend, this is an ideal spot to join the downtrend once the reversal is confirmed. The reversal should be within days as BTC is trading right up against the zero line on the Fibonacci channel.

BTC also has to contend with its .618 retracement at 22,663. This coincides closely with trendline resistance shown on the chart below. The upward trendline from June 2022 lows was broken in late August 2022. Now it should serve as strong resistance along with the Fibonacci channel's zero line and the .618 retracement.

Supplementary Chart: .618 Retracement and Trendline Resistance

Together, these resistance levels are likely to reject price lower, providing a good risk-reward shorting opportunity. Keep a tight stop just above the zero line as bear markets have a way of continuing to frustrate directional traders and taking out stop areas.

Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature and could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.

Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.

DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.

注释

Look at this divergence in RSI as price continues to climb higher:

Of course, the divergence could be erased if BTC breaks above its 10-month trendline, but would be surprising.

In any event, momentum is slowing here.

注释

BTC is closing in on the make-or-break zone. Interestingly, look at where the .618 retracement crosses the 11-month downtrend line. this will be in the next 4 hours or so. These two levels coincide at $22,651.77.

注释

Watch out for whipsaws above the trendline. It's not immune to a quick violation that fails -- actually several of them. Look at the whipsaws through same 11-month trendline (the zero line in the Fib channel) in March 2022: