Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis

10月7日

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

Bitcoin started the new trading week with growth. After a corrective wave down to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, triggered by the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, BTC has managed to hold above the EMA 200 and EMA 50 lines. Today, the price is retesting the nearest resistance block at $64,000 - $65,000, and the outcome of this retest will determine the direction of BTC's next move. If the price can hold above this level, we expect an upward move towards a test of the upper boundary of the descending price channel, where Bitcoin has been trading for the past 7 months.
On the other hand, if BTC fails to break through, the price could continue its correction towards the 0.78 Fibonacci level, where it would test the descending trendline support near the major support block at $56,000 - $57,000. This scenario may unfold if the conflict in the Middle East escalates.




📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price has been moving within a descending price channel for 7 months. The descending wedge pattern is typically a bullish corrective figure. Holding above the 200-day moving average suggests a strong likelihood of BTC breaking out of the price channel upwards, barring any disruptive fundamental factors like the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. This breakout would pave the way for a test of the major resistance block at $70,000. If BTC can hold above this level, it is likely to surpass its current all-time high (ATH).
Beyond the current ATH, there are no significant historical resistance levels. To identify growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analyze clusters of large order blocks in exchange order books. The first Fibonacci extension level, 1.23, is at $80,000. In the $90,000 - $100,000 range, there's a global trendline based on the peaks of Bitcoin’s previous two cycles, along with the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trendline, corresponding to the 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci levels, may be tested starting from $100,000.




💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels

The Fear and Greed Index is in the neutral zone - 50.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has grown to $2188 billion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index has increased to 58.11.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 50,000 and 70,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 50,000 - 60,000
🔴 Supply zone: 70,000 - 80,000

Levels for long positions:
60,000 - large support block
57,000 - support trend line
52,000 - large support block

Levels for short positions:
65,000 - large resistance block
65,000 - downward resistance trend line
70,000 - large resistance block
80,000 - large resistance block




📊 Fundamental analysis

Bitcoin started the new week with a rise. Investors had previously attributed BTC's recent negative trend to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. However, this early-week growth has rekindled the hopes of the crypto community for a new all-time high (ATH) this year. Several fundamental factors could contribute to Bitcoin's price surge:
- The U.S. Federal Reserve’s potential decision to lower the key interest rate.
- China’s plans to support its banking sector with a $142 billion liquidity injection.
- The effects of the Bitcoin halving, which could increase cryptocurrency scarcity, pushing its price higher.
- Historically, the crypto market often shows positive performance in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 2024, is also boosting demand for Bitcoin. Political instability and potential shifts in economic policy may trigger volatility in financial markets, driving investors toward assets that are less dependent on government or central bank actions.

Additionally, on October 8, HBO will air the film "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery," which may shed light on the identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. This event could further fuel media interest in Bitcoin.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:

➤ 10.10, 15:30 - US Consumer Inflation Index (CPI) for September.

➤ 05.11, 00:00 - US Presidential Election.

➤ 07.11, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.


📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:

In September, the price of Bitcoin began to recover its positions. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all 5 signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements.
- Total price movement by all signals: + 37.94%
- Maximum price movement: + 10.42%
- Average price movement: + 7.58%




In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:

10月15日

注释

📈 Bitcoin price continues to move according to the scenario of our review. BTC is testing the upper boundary of the price channel, in which it has been for the 8th month! The reasons for the growth were:
1. Expectations of a further reduction in the Fed rate.
2. A positive reaction to liquidity injections from China.
3. Preparation for the US presidential election, which crypto enthusiast Donald Trump may win.
4. Growing coin deficit after Halving.

The artificial intelligence of our trading indicator, as always, warned in advance about the change in the market situation and gave the most favorable entry points into positions with minimal risk. So, according to the latest signals, the maximum take profit levels have already been taken, and the price movement according to the latest signals on the spot was:
BTC +11.91%
ETH +10.72%
SOL +12.48%