Bitcoin Wyckoff Update With Point Of Control Levels

2021年9月11日

Hi all,

I've updated the wyckoff schematics with more details and adjusted the levels. We have just had the secondary test in phase B. I'm expecting the upthrust event to happen early next week when the Previous Weeks Value Low (pwVAL) is hit. This level is the exact level we crashed from 52k!

My goal with this trade is to take profit at the upthrust and buy back at the spring event as i'm already fully invested in Bitcoin.

I used volume profile point of control (POC) indicator along with my support & resistance levels in this analysis. It basically marks important levels on the chart.

Colors:
Yellow: Weekly levels
Purple: Monthly levels
Cyan: Daily levels

Acronyms:
wOpen: Weekly open
pwVAH: Previous weekly value area high
pwPOC: Previous week's point of control
pmVAH: Previous value area high
pwVAL: Previous week's value area low
mOpen: Monthly open
pdVAH: Previous day value area high
dOpen: Daily open
dPOC: Daily point of control

In addition to that, i used Fibonacci Time Zone (vertical blue bars) for possible reversal timing. Note that these are not wyckoff phases.

I'm probably wrong, good luck!

2021年9月11日

注释

The most probable scenario i'm betting on is above, but there are other possibilities that will invalidate this idea:

Invalidation points:

- Unable to make a new higher high above Automatic Rally (AR) 47.425
- Price does not get rejected and the upthrust resistance flips in to support, suggesting a faster recovery (Inverse head and shoulders) = shorts get rekt.
- Weak rally after spring and drop below monthly level.

Alternative paths:
- Spring is not a required element, so price can turn up before falling down below Selling climax (SC) at 42.836 so if you short at Upthrust take profit on the way down.

Calculate Your Risk:

When taking any trade, you should not trade with 100% of your account. You should calculate your risk (the amount of money you will loose if your stop is hit) and this amount must not exceed 1% of your trading capital.

Example:

You have $100 in your account and you take a trade with 5% stop loss and 15% take profit. You will loose 5% of your account if this trade goes bust and win 15% if you win.

This is a trade with risk / reward ratio of 1:3 (Anything above 2 is good)

While everyone has different risk apetite, with 5% you can get rekt after taking 7 consecutive losses. (Anything above 33% loss is considered Rekt as now you have to double your money to breakeven)

Instead, you should trade with $20 and if you loose, you'll loose only 1% of your account and you'll make 3% which is a good amount for a single trade.

Hope this helps!

2021年9月15日

注释

Bitcoin has reached to the top of trading range, set by the Automatic Rally (AR) Time to take profits and get ready for the Upthrust (UT) AFTER successful swing failure and retest of resistance.

2021年9月19日

注释

No more waiting for the spring event, it has already occured. Checkout my update