The "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a trend reversal if necessary.
-> The coupling of traditional markets to BTC is very high because of institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls). -> I will analyze in more detail in today's post at which key areas we can expect resistance at a LONG. -> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 1st part = EXPLANATION - used indicators + levels - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - Pro + Con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION
FIRST PART
1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT |
For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move, which started in - Sep/2022 - and ended in - Sep/2022 -.
| POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support.
> As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart.
6. | SIDEWAYS CHANNEL |
The sideways channel formed at the last sell-off, in - May/2022.
-> Range = 22.800,00 USD - 18.626,00 | Pending settlement
SECOND PART
As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level.
1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 23,600-24,400 USD (momentum-dependent)
What would speak for it:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDEWARDS-TREND CHANNEL" + confirmation - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) = completely worked off - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) = 0.786 - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + 4H (1+2) = Drop-Base-Rally = WEAK
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises
What is the argument against it:
- "BREAK OF THE SIDE DOWNTREND CHANNEL" + without confirmation. - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 0.618+ 0.65 FIB" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328 FIB" - "POINT OF INTEREST (1) - "SUPPLY ZONE | D (2) = rally base drop = STRONG
- Entire AREA - marked with "RED ZONE" = very strong resistance - need enough momentum to break it and stay above it.
All levels plotted on this screenshot:
2. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 27,500 – 30,000 USD (momentum dependent)
What would speak for it:
- "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | Worked down to the 1.618s - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (3) | 0.328s = Pending - "SUPPLY ZONES | Worked down to the W (1) + D (3) = Outstanding - Liquidity Pools - Uptrend line serves as resistance - Test from last market structure break
+ this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY falls + S&P500 rises
What is the argument against it:
- All AREAS - marked with "RED ZONE" = are very strong resistances - we need enough momentum to break this and stay above.
All levels drawn in on this screenshot:
CONCLUSION
What the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will look like is impossible to say at the moment.
The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows:
- DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500.
- The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! (for this please look at my SHORT SCENARIOS version to get the relevant levels).
- If this market crash does not happen, then all markets will go into a "recovery rally". The traditional market will also pull the crypto market up with it.
- If this market crash does occur, then it will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.)
-> The marked levels should all realize a reaction, which are dependent on momentum.
-> Once it is apparent that we have formed the BOTTOM, I will upload a detailed LONG execution.
-> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on it all.
If this idea and explanation added any value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it. Thank you and happy trading!
注释
POI(1) has been successfully worked through, and we have advanced to the SUPPLY ZONE (2). > Now everything looks like the "short term" rally is over - the DXY is recovering.
> The Fibonacci levels from my SHORT idea have been perfectly worked off (green hooks). > The retracement levels drawn from the idea are outdated and have been adjusted to the new LOW POINT.