Bitcoin midterm plan
已更新
Hi all,
Last week there was a lot of news negativity related to SEC lawsuits against binance and coinbase. The top cryptocurrency BTC ETH, showed a moderate decline of 5-7%.
Most likely, the consequences have not yet fully affected the price of cryptocurrencies, at the moment, altcoins were particularly hard hit. If the negativity continues, we are in for a continued decline in the altcoin market and BTC, ETH.
Macro factor.
This week is full of macro data to be released. The most important ones are:
- June 13 consumer inflation data, market forecast 4.1% previous value 4.9%. The inflation is likely to go down.
- On June 14, the Fed's interest rate decision. Market forecast 78% that the rate will remain unchanged, and 22% that the rate will be raised by 25 bps, to the level of 5.25-5.5%.
Also keep in mind that June 16 is the quarterly expiration of derivatives, which also could very well affect the volatility.
In last trade I was waiting for a breakdown of the 26000 area to open a short position, or if there was a clear signal to sell at the breakdown of 26700. The breakout occurred, but I did not enter the trade because there was no confirmation of the volume. And as you can see in the chart, on Tuesday the fall was bought off, and later the decline continued. Basically, I understand that the probability of continuation of the fall is high, but to enter a short position from the current price will not because for the stop zone 26700 is suitable, but it may get caught, and I will hit the stop. Therefore, to open a position I want to see another volumetric swing down, which can be used for a stop. Cancellation of my short mood, will be a breakdown of the 28000 area. P.S. this week will be very volatile, these are the main events that in my opinion will influence the market, not the lines on the charts, levels, waves and so on. P.S.S. In such a volatile period it is especially important to follow the trading discipline and risk management. Support for the author subscribe ✅ and start rocket 🚀. Good luck and profit to all.
Last week there was a lot of news negativity related to SEC lawsuits against binance and coinbase. The top cryptocurrency BTC ETH, showed a moderate decline of 5-7%.
Most likely, the consequences have not yet fully affected the price of cryptocurrencies, at the moment, altcoins were particularly hard hit. If the negativity continues, we are in for a continued decline in the altcoin market and BTC, ETH.
Macro factor.
This week is full of macro data to be released. The most important ones are:
- June 13 consumer inflation data, market forecast 4.1% previous value 4.9%. The inflation is likely to go down.
- On June 14, the Fed's interest rate decision. Market forecast 78% that the rate will remain unchanged, and 22% that the rate will be raised by 25 bps, to the level of 5.25-5.5%.
Also keep in mind that June 16 is the quarterly expiration of derivatives, which also could very well affect the volatility.
In last trade I was waiting for a breakdown of the 26000 area to open a short position, or if there was a clear signal to sell at the breakdown of 26700. The breakout occurred, but I did not enter the trade because there was no confirmation of the volume. And as you can see in the chart, on Tuesday the fall was bought off, and later the decline continued. Basically, I understand that the probability of continuation of the fall is high, but to enter a short position from the current price will not because for the stop zone 26700 is suitable, but it may get caught, and I will hit the stop. Therefore, to open a position I want to see another volumetric swing down, which can be used for a stop. Cancellation of my short mood, will be a breakdown of the 28000 area. P.S. this week will be very volatile, these are the main events that in my opinion will influence the market, not the lines on the charts, levels, waves and so on. P.S.S. In such a volatile period it is especially important to follow the trading discipline and risk management. Support for the author subscribe ✅ and start rocket 🚀. Good luck and profit to all.
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