Are we in the Wyckoff's Accumulation or Re-distribution phase?

2021年6月26日

As we know the Wyckoff's method is a judgmental method, meaning it can't be applied solely by drawing the patterns. What make it even more difficult, is the fact that we have found the bottom for a while, but we are still not sure if this is Accumulation or Re-distribution Phase!

According to what we have experienced over the last several months, Wyckoff's distribution phase has accomplished by 4 different stages:
1. Sign of Weakness.
2. Last Point of Supply.
3. Failure to stay in the range.
4. plunge!

What we are experiencing at present looks like we are in the Re-distribution phase rather than Accumulation, which may result in another significant plunge to around the 20K Level, where 100 Moving Average in the Weekly timeframe is. I will keep watching the price action, as I can see we are at the final stages to accomplish this phase.

Here are my strategies:

1. If it continues to be Bearish, the 25K level is less likely to hold for a long time. Therefore, I will go long at 20K level, where 100 Week MA is. (Pathway (1) and (2) on the chart; I see 70% chance for this case scenario.)

2. if it reverses back to the Bulls, I want to see a considerable rally to the upside, supported by the noticeable Volume. This means seeing BTC Closes the weekly candle at 48K Level, where 20 Week MA is. In this case, I will jump on the train in BTC's pullback to the 40K-36K Level, and will wait to see BTC's new ATH. ( Pathway (3) on the chart; I see 30% chance for this case scenario.)