Bitcoin to repeat pattern?
The last several days, I have been seeing a similarity in the price action highlighted. Granted, it is not a perfect comparison once we start looking at exact lengths of time and highs/lows; but still quite similar. We can also see that the highlighted portion is just a smaller trend within the larger trend/range.
When comparing the recent low to the current recent high (5880-6800ish) it took us 11 days to cover that. I see a similarity in early July price action where it took 9 days to make a similar move from the recent low to a recent high. Slight difference in that the most recent 'recent low' was slightly lower this time around as opposed to comparing early july. (as noted by the small dashed line)
Assuming we stay in this range with 6800 being the ceiling, I imagine that we will now begin to drift away from that upper boundary. I am looking at 6400 as first area to watch, then a move down to 6100 would take us the lower end of this range. In July, it took us 5 days to complete that move from upper to lower end of range.
Again, that is just the smaller trend within the trend. Shifting focus to the larger view, I am also watching whether we complete the 2nd half of the right shoulder of a multi-month long H&S pattern. From a technical standpoint, that is obviously bearish; and coupled with the similarities in comparing a current price chart to 2014-15 price chart as seen below, the outlook from a chart perspective is not very encouraging from the bullish side of the fence.
(And as always, my typical disclaimer in any 2014-15 chart comparisons: the comparison is from the chart perspective ONLY! Yes, the fundamental climate is vastly different now than it was then.)
The failure to yet make a lower low this time around versus late June/early July is should be viewed as good news from a bullish perspective. If and when we attempt another rally from this general range, each bounce has been lower than the prior high. 12000, 10000, and 8500. I would be watching for maybe 7250ish?
One last note, the volume this time around in this range is noticeably higher, on average, than it was while we sat in this range in July:
Long post shortened: I do believe it is more likely we stay in this range and revisit lower boundaries over the next week or so versus exiting this range and beginning a new rally attempt. Personal opinion ONLY of course...but would venture to put it at 80/20 likelihood?
When comparing the recent low to the current recent high (5880-6800ish) it took us 11 days to cover that. I see a similarity in early July price action where it took 9 days to make a similar move from the recent low to a recent high. Slight difference in that the most recent 'recent low' was slightly lower this time around as opposed to comparing early july. (as noted by the small dashed line)
Assuming we stay in this range with 6800 being the ceiling, I imagine that we will now begin to drift away from that upper boundary. I am looking at 6400 as first area to watch, then a move down to 6100 would take us the lower end of this range. In July, it took us 5 days to complete that move from upper to lower end of range.
Again, that is just the smaller trend within the trend. Shifting focus to the larger view, I am also watching whether we complete the 2nd half of the right shoulder of a multi-month long H&S pattern. From a technical standpoint, that is obviously bearish; and coupled with the similarities in comparing a current price chart to 2014-15 price chart as seen below, the outlook from a chart perspective is not very encouraging from the bullish side of the fence.
(And as always, my typical disclaimer in any 2014-15 chart comparisons: the comparison is from the chart perspective ONLY! Yes, the fundamental climate is vastly different now than it was then.)
The failure to yet make a lower low this time around versus late June/early July is should be viewed as good news from a bullish perspective. If and when we attempt another rally from this general range, each bounce has been lower than the prior high. 12000, 10000, and 8500. I would be watching for maybe 7250ish?
One last note, the volume this time around in this range is noticeably higher, on average, than it was while we sat in this range in July:
Long post shortened: I do believe it is more likely we stay in this range and revisit lower boundaries over the next week or so versus exiting this range and beginning a new rally attempt. Personal opinion ONLY of course...but would venture to put it at 80/20 likelihood?
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