Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

2023年10月3日

The price of Bitcoin has entered the 4-hour Imbalance zone, as we warned in all our recent ideas. Consequently, the price has broken above the global descending trendline and moved out of the previous price range. This BTC rally is associated with a significant accumulation of short positions, with the total volume of shorts reaching up to 85% compared to longs. During the upward impulse, short positions totaling over $100 million were liquidated.

Currently, we anticipate trading within the 4-hour Imbalance zone to fill gaps in horizontal trading volume levels. If the price fails to consolidate itself above the resistance block, it's likely go to correction of the recent upward impulse to the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci levels. During this correction, it may also retest EMA50 and the descending trendline.

However, if buyers manage to maintain their strength and continue the upward movement, we anticipate a test of the next significant resistance block around the psychological level 30,000.


📉 Global view of the Bitcoin market

On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price is testing the intersection of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages. If it consolidate above these moving averages, the next target for the upward movement could be a retest of the upward trendline above which lies the 1-week Imbalance zone. In this zone, gaps in horizontal trading volume levels need to be filled. However, to achieve this, buyers will need to overcome the significant resistance block at 30,000-32,000.

It's important to note that the RSI indicators on the 4-hour and 1-day timeframes are already entering the oversold territory, indicating a potential trend reversal on the horizon.

Additionally, it's worth remembering that the Bitcoin price has not yet fully played out the breakout from the bearish wedge pattern. Furthermore, there hasn't been a proper correction of the entire uptrend since the beginning of this year. These factors suggest that the market may still experience significant volatility and potential price movements in the near future. Traders should closely monitor these and be prepared for various scenarios.

Levels long positions:
23,000 - level of the cost zone control point (POC)
22,000 - 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level
20,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level
17000-19000 - Imbalance zone 1H

Levels for short positions:
29,000-30,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level
32 000-35000 - Imbalance zone 1W
36,000-38,000 - zone of possible retest of the trend line
40,000 - psychological resistance level



The index of fear and greed is in the neutral zone - 50.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased to $1083 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index increased to 50.53.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks in order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 20000 - 26000
🔴 Offer zone: 29000 - 32000




📊 Fundamental analysis

Historical data has shown that October has traditionally been a favorable month for Bitcoin price growth. Currently, there's an active hashtag campaign on social media called #Uptober, indicating optimism among cryptocurrency enthusiasts for a positive trend in October.

Large investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin. According to on-chain analysis, addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC are accumulating coins. This suggests that institutional investors remain bullish on Bitcoin.

In the world of U.S. politics, a compromise bill was passed, preventing a government shutdown at least until November 17th. This news has provided support to all risk asset markets, including cryptocurrencies.

The American stock market initially responded to this news with a slight upward impulse in the S&P500 index, but it was later overshadowed by a decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise. These factors highlight the dynamic and interconnected nature of the financial markets, with political developments, institutional interest, and seasonal patterns all playing a role in influencing market sentiment and asset prices.



🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ October 3rd at 17:00 - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August.

➤ October 12th at 15:30 - U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

➤ November 1st at 21:00 - New Federal Reserve interest rate decision.