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5 REASONS TO STAY IN THE CRYPTO MARKET

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3天前

The end of September aka rektember historically the worst performing month of the year is in sight, and October is fast approaching.

1/ October aka ‘Uptober’ or better to say "Moontober" is historically one of the best performing months of the year and in the past two bull run years October’s have all been green – third time’s a charm? FYI last year we pumped 29% and so many of us ordered Countach

2/ It ain’t just October – Q4 historically yields the highest returns of the year

Excited for Uptober? Just wait till we hit No Loss November baaaby!

3/ M2 projections vs. looking bullish

M2 tracks the global supply of money. The more money is in the system, the more of it can flow into crypto. Here’s Bloomberg’s 10week projection of M2 supply (black) overlaid with ’s current performance (red)

4/ The bull market historically takes off at this point

See that white line? That’s the current cycle

as you see The crypto market seems to be following historical bull market trends closely. We've experienced a stronger than usual rally ahead of the halving, largely driven by expectations around spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, the post-halving rally has been weaker, bringing the market back in line with typical patterns seen in previous cycles.

Potential for Growth: If past cycles are any indication, the market is expected to gain momentum from this point onward. Historically, after a weaker post-halving phase, a significant upward surge is needed to complete the cycle.

Cycle Length Considerations: There is evidence suggesting that each crypto cycle is lengthening in terms of duration. This trend may reflect increasing institutional involvement, as longer cycles often point to a more mature and stable market

5/ Rate cuts are here!
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points in their first rate cut since March 2020.This is now the most unexpected Fed decision since 2009.
And lowered rates allow more money to flow into markets over time.

and after btc pump we will have sweet alt party so buckle up and be ready for printing money

注释

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 14 was 219,000, the lowest since the week ending May 18, 2024. The expected number was 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 230,000 to 231,000. The number of continuing jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 7 was 1.829 million, the expected number was 1.854 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.85 million to 1.843 million.

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the bullflag will be broken soon

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September 20th option delivery data
20,200 BTC options are about to expire, the Put Call Ratio is 0.86, the maximum pain point is 59,000 US dollars, and the notional value is 1.28 billion US dollars.
125,000 ETH options are about to expire, the Put Call Ratio is 0.67, the maximum pain point is 2,350 US dollars, and the notional value is 320 million US dollars.

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According to the US SEC, MicroStrategy purchased another 7,420 bitcoins between September 13 and September 19, worth approximately $458.2 million, with an average purchase price of $61,750. This latest acquisition coincided with the completion of MicroStrategy's $1.01 billion additional convertible bond issuance. MicroStrategy currently holds 252,220 BTC, worth approximately $15.8 billion, with an average purchase price of $39,266, and a total cost of approximately $9.9 billion

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The U.S. SEC has approved BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF's options trading listing proposal. This is the first time a spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved for options trading, which is expected to increase market liquidity and attract more large investors to participate. Other companies such as Grayscale and Bitwise are also applying for similar options trading approvals and are expected to be approved soon.

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The 50 bps rate cut has encouraged the crypto market and some active projects are starting to appear, the intensive voice of the Fed governor this Thursday is worth paying attention to, the main term IV is currently at a low level, the layout of some medium and long term cost-effective, historically, the general market will be better in October, and now is a good opportunity to buy. In addition this Sunday Zhao Changpeng is about to be released from prison, the relevant concept can give attention

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China's central bank on Tuesday unveiled its biggest stimulus since the pandemic. Chinese stocks and bonds rallied and Asian stocks hit 2-1/2 year highs as Governor Pan Gongsheng announced plans to lower borrowing costs and inject more funds into the economy, as well as to ease households' mortgage repayment burden. The yuan currency jumped to a 16-month high against the dollar

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The U.S. announced the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the Q2 of 3%, which was expected to be 3% and the previous value was 3.00%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the Q2 of the U.S. was 2.8%, which was expected to be 2.8% and the previous value was 2.80%. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 21 was 218,000, the lowest since May 18.

注释

Bitcoin spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $366 million on September 26, continuing a net inflow for 6 consecutive days. Ark Invest and 21Shares' ETF ARKB had an inflow of $114 million, and BlackRock ETF IBIT had an inflow of $93.3755 million.

On September 26, the total net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF was $675,500. Grayscale ETF ETHE had an outflow of $36,021,700, Fidelity ETF FETH had an inflow of $15,918,800, and BlackRock ETF ETHA had an inflow of $14,854,100.

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27 Sep Options Data
89,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.64, a Maxpain point of $59,000 and a notional value of $5.8 billion.
718,000 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.47, a Maxpain point of $2,500 and a notional value of $1.9 billion.

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The United States announced that the number of new ADP jobs in September was 143,000, which was expected to be 120,000. The previous value was revised from 99,000 to 103,000. ADP (Automatic Data Processing) is the abbreviation of the American Automatic Data Processing Company. The US ADP employment data is released by the US Department of Labor on the first Wednesday of each month

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- The new quarter kickstarted with some volatility in risk assets due to the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Given the timing (one-year anniversary since the outbreak of the Gaza war) and scale of Iran’s attack, market is expecting Israel’s retaliation to be more critical as they target key infrastructures such as Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.

- Friday’s non-farm payrolls printed 254,000, smashing expectations at 150,000. US unemployment rate came in at 4.1% (est. 4.2%). The strong data reflected a robust labour market despite last month’s dismal print.

- A resilient labour market coupled with the possibility of additional rate cuts later this year have boosted risk assets, with BTC briefly reclaiming $62,000.

- Options market activity continue to grow as as we enter Q4 with demand for December calls still building up, highlighting market’s bullish view towards the end of the year.

- BTC down approximately 5% from last week's highs, we believe the recent positive macro data supports our view of the long-awaited "Uptober" trend.

Trade Idea
With Geopolitical risk being the biggest concern now till US elections, we favour locking in yields at the these spot levels to allow the dust to settle and position for a rally into the year end.

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SAYLOR: "We're buying all the time. We're buying the lows, the mids, the highs. I'll be buying the top forever because I'm expecting Bitcoin will continue to appreciate as digital capital."

注释

all eyes are on US CPI this Thursday. With the recent strong US wage and jobs numbers, the market will be paying close attention to this print for any signs of an uptick in inflation. Fed rate cut expectations have shifted from 50 bps to 25 bps in just a week and this week's data may determine if further cuts get priced out.

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The National Bank of Bahrain introduces the country's first ever Bitcoin investment product

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Tokyo based Metaplanet just bought another ¥1 billion worth of Bitcoin

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There has been a spike in Bitcoin demand, growing at the fastest monthly pace since April 2024.

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Italy plans to raise capital gains tax on Bitcoin investments from 26% to 42%. The Italian government previously planned to raise 3.5 billion euros (about 3.8 billion U.S. dollars) in budget funds by imposing additional taxes on banks and insurance companies.

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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) Flow has been increasing for several days. BlackRock saw inflow of 391.8m today

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On October 21, Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $294 million, continuing its net inflow for 7 consecutive days. BlackRock ETF IBIT had an inflow of $329 million. Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of $20.7993 million

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Tesla has maintained its Bitcoin assets, now totaling 11,509 BTC worth $774 million, with recent movements indicating a transfer to new wallets.

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注释

In the past hour, the Royal Government of Bhutan transferred 935 ($ 66.55M) to Binance

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Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that BlackRock BTC spot ETF IBIT traded $3.3 billion today, the largest volume in the past six months, which may be due to the surge in trading volume caused by FOMO, and funds may be seen in the next few days

3天前

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Bitcoin mining difficulty continues to increase rapidly. Bitcoin's mining difficulty adjusted at block height 868,896, with a 6.24% increase in mining difficulty to reach 101.65 T and a new ATH.