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A BUDZ is born—The first 48 hours

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2024-04-22
Shiba BUDZ / Wrapped ETH in USD on Uniswap V3

Shiba BUDZ is touted as a rival to the popular Shiba Inu meme token, but with more functionality , such as gaming and DeFi.

On April 19, 2024, Shiba BUDZ concluded its presale at the token price of 0.04745536 USD, with the initial stage price of $0.007.

The following day (4/20) at 10:36 UTC, the token was launched on Uniswap V3 for trading as a pair with Wrapped Ether (WETH), with an initial equivalent price of about USD$0.047.
The first token airdrop to presale investors is scheduled on 4/22 for a tranche of 25% of purchase.

OTC trading on Uniswap over the weekend was very sparse, but buyers lifted the price to over 11 cents, for a bottom to top gain of over 130%, before correcting in what appears to be the first fourth wave in my tentative Elliott wave assignment.

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Wow, it went straight north. BUDZ really should enter a correction here, at about 13 cents, based on size rules for Elliott waves, but it is not clear how far they should apply given the extremely sparse trading over the weekend. As of Sunday night there were only a little over 100 transaction on the blockchain. It should pick up when presale investors get their bags. Some will want to take their nice profits and secure the initial investment.

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One-minute chart

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It appears that a correction has begun.
If this indeed materializes to any extend, I expect the following scenario.
The market top is the end of the fifth wave in small degree (12345), and that completes wave three, (3), in one degree higher. The fourth wave (4) should correct its third wave by 23.6 % to 38.2% by the Fibonacci statistics of Elliott wave theory. It can be less or more, but not commonly. As a rough first rule, it should revisit the bottom of the fourth wave of one lower degree, which amounts to about 10 cents here.

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The funny part is that this correction scenario is based entirely on barely a handful of trades. I have no idea that it is real, but my thinking is that if the airdrop indeed occurs today, there may be quite a few willing or wanting sellers.
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I noticed at least one trading-bot on the blockchain. I think it caused one of the wicks up, with a buy and sell of a large block in the same minute. Ugh.

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The majority of onchain transactions are still buys, pushing the price up.
However, the market has clearly developed pan Elliott wave structure in every detail.
There are even ending structured corrections and ending diagonals.
I was able to piece together a coherent picture of all features, except two single-transaction wicks, which are clearly outliers, which I have ignored.

From this it seems all trading so far has been to form a single first wave and the start of its correction. The correction has returned the price to the fundamental trend line, which I used as the basis for the Fibonacci channels. Breaking it would not be surprising, in fact I expect it, as a second wave should correct much deeper than it has so far. But anything is possible here.

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Indeed, we have the base line break. I am not sure this confirms the wave assignments though, because I can draw others as well and we have really no way to verify each wave as the data is too sparse to go into smaller time frames. Already many time slots or candle bars even on a fifteen-minute chart have no transactions. Yet it is amazing that these waves appear at all even in the smallest chart details.

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BUDZ is one week old.
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