CADJPY S

2018年4月18日

Top Down Analysis:

Monthly:
We've been in a consolidation of a Bear Flag since 2016, on Jan and Feb candlesticks we've had the rejection of the 91.5 level and the break out of the Bearish Flag pattern;
On March, this pair printed a Pin Bar rejecting 80.550 Support;
10EMA crossed below 20EMA;

Weekly:
Price is in a pullback of the Flag breakout leg;
Pullback may extend to 86.000 key level;
84.4 level is a Triple-A confluence level being a Strong S/R + 50% Fib Level + 20/50EMA Mean;
10, 20, 50 EMAs are Bearishly aligned and separated, indicating strong downtrend;

Daily:
We have something like a bullish Head & Shoulders pattern that broke out on 03/04;
Flip-zone at 81.7 level
10EMA is above 20EMA indicating the bulls are in the lead for now;

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Bearish pressure already kicked in at 85.8ish, which is close enough from the expected area. The pair just made a Lower High and broke the previous Higher Low with bearish momentum engulfing 3 trading days.

Given all the above:

Entry Trigger:
Bearish Engulfing candle, high momentum after deceleration;

Stop Loss:
3 pips above Trigger Candle's High

Take Profit:
TP1:Previous Low at 83.700

Trade Management:
Close Half once TP1 is hit and Trail Stop to Lower Highs until hit;