Smollet

Crude Oil Long cycle with high probability

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NYMEX_DL:CL1!   轻质原油期货
I see big accumulation on Crude oil with 2 months duration. After such a big price accumulation ranges I expect the price realisation(trend).
We have a two variation of the scenario for Crude oil.

First Scenario
With high probabilty we will see new long trend. The fundamental data also show the long direction on the higher time frames. Production of crude oil is low top 2 of the biggest oil producers is decreasing the oil production, only USA is rising production but it is not enough to make the price fall. Cause is total amount of Crude oil production of top oil producers is still low.

Second Scenario
If the middle line of big accumulation will be broken then we can see the price fall and failure of most probability Long scenario
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