Crude is finishing off a bullish pennant pattern on the daily charts. Price MAY have hit their pivot point at $61 today which is a head and shoulders pattern neckline on the 4HR, a uptrend line and a key support level. If $61 holds, then the charge to $67 begins. If $61 fails, the likely target is $59 for a new bull entry with an outside shot at $54. I am opening this idea to target a new long entry, but not yet. Need to see price action tomorrow. Ideally a nice bullish pinbar as prices drop past $61 then reverse right back above $61 to signal the bottom is in. If $61 fails and doesn't recover, this idea is invalid and I will wait for a better entry to setup, but I will not enter a short trade, the R/R is not worth it.
Current wave C of bullish correction should extend past $61 to $59 or $54, but there is a lot of resistance to this price action. I have charted out the 3 scenarios I see as options:
1) $61 breaks and drops to $59 - $54 - no new short entry, wait for long
2) $61 holds and downtrend line broken with direct acceleration to $67 - hold deep profit on long entry for $67 target
3) $61 holds and downtrend line broken with choppy price action back to downtrend line (testback) then acceleration to $67 - hold a net neutral long entry for $67 target
On the 4 HR - H&S pattern clear and $61 neckline holding - looks like an attractive R/R long entry is forming.
Current wave C of bullish correction should extend past $61 to $59 or $54, but there is a lot of resistance to this price action. I have charted out the 3 scenarios I see as options:
1) $61 breaks and drops to $59 - $54 - no new short entry, wait for long
2) $61 holds and downtrend line broken with direct acceleration to $67 - hold deep profit on long entry for $67 target
3) $61 holds and downtrend line broken with choppy price action back to downtrend line (testback) then acceleration to $67 - hold a net neutral long entry for $67 target
On the 4 HR - H&S pattern clear and $61 neckline holding - looks like an attractive R/R long entry is forming.
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Possible that neckline $61 will break today meaning $59 - $58.20 - $57 - $54 are in play as DCL - no new long entry at this time until prices clarify.
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Friday showed a nice Beartrap - Prices broke the neckline, hovered right at $60.15 for a day then reversed aggressively taking out all the bear stops--strong bullish sign
** BUT **
We just saw a massive run from $42 to $66 - we have had a A-B-weakC wave retracement that isn't even 38% of the way. Tells me there is a lot of bull energy here. It also tells me that we are not done wave C yet, it will just be choppy down.
So here is the angle I'm working:
1-oil will chop down to $55-$59 range (yep that's a huge long entry range so price action will dictate when to enter and it may take a few attempts before it hold - each will be in profit though)
2-I expect that oil will surge following the march 20/21 FOMC meeting, along with a gold surge.
3-my target is $66. IF oil breaks $66 then we are in no man's land and the sky is the limit.
Patience during this C wave will be the key. I have enterred a few short trades and scalped some money but now the bull risk is too great so no more shorts - just waiting for great long entry point: $60.15, $58.80, $55--one of these will hold firm.
** BUT **
We just saw a massive run from $42 to $66 - we have had a A-B-weakC wave retracement that isn't even 38% of the way. Tells me there is a lot of bull energy here. It also tells me that we are not done wave C yet, it will just be choppy down.
So here is the angle I'm working:
1-oil will chop down to $55-$59 range (yep that's a huge long entry range so price action will dictate when to enter and it may take a few attempts before it hold - each will be in profit though)
2-I expect that oil will surge following the march 20/21 FOMC meeting, along with a gold surge.
3-my target is $66. IF oil breaks $66 then we are in no man's land and the sky is the limit.
Patience during this C wave will be the key. I have enterred a few short trades and scalped some money but now the bull risk is too great so no more shorts - just waiting for great long entry point: $60.15, $58.80, $55--one of these will hold firm.
评论:
This range narrowing will not last. US production keep rising, but prices aren't falling. A chart bullish pennant is forming with a decision point coming. Everyone knows that prices will burst out of the range and there is a producer bias to rise rather than fall. Soon prices will explode one way or the other, and prices keep rejecting $60. My money is on a price surge past $66 but no entry YET. I expect a fall below $60 to $58.80 area from stops being triggered followed by a surge back up. My entry will be on the way back up.
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We have the triangle breakout right on target My entry will be on the backtest of the trend line in the next 24 hours.
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No backtest, just a rocket!
交易结束：到达目标:
Working on the next idea, this one is complete
