One is hard pressed to find a macro bull case for crude. Supply is poised to rise, demand is looking to slow, and the dollar looks ready for another leg higher. Longer term, I still believe we'll see new lows in oil and the technicals make an easy case for a full retracement of this Spring's ascent.
Currently, crude is sitting at important support, which coincides with both the psychologically important, 50 level and the 61.8% fib retracement (49.84). Watch for a bounce off of 50 back up to the 50% fib retracement (52.24). Otherwise, a breakdown below 49.84 will usher in another leg down, targeting 46.89. This could be a rather steep descent if we see the dollar index break out above resistance at yesterday and today's high ~98.30.
I'm currently short, but will look to add to that short on a move below 49.84, targeting 46.89 with a stop at 51.04.
Currently, crude is sitting at important support, which coincides with both the psychologically important, 50 level and the 61.8% fib retracement (49.84). Watch for a bounce off of 50 back up to the 50% fib retracement (52.24). Otherwise, a breakdown below 49.84 will usher in another leg down, targeting 46.89. This could be a rather steep descent if we see the dollar index break out above resistance at yesterday and today's high ~98.30.
I'm currently short, but will look to add to that short on a move below 49.84, targeting 46.89 with a stop at 51.04.
