Full crash and overshoot of the mean.

2022年11月5日

As a general rule, parabolic trends will tend to correct sharply, get back to the mean, spike out the mean/previous low and then return to the mean where either a new uptrend starts or it meanders along sideways for a while.

A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.

2月23日

注释

Fair case to be made for this being a bit toppy now.

If this turns into a false breakout that might be the end of the rally.

3月2日

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Starting to very seriously consider the short on this now.

I'm just cautious because ... well, the ATR is high.

I don't want to short and get spiked out in a final blow off.

But I certainly don't like the long side any more for a swing trade.

3月3日

注释

I think 80 is a really good level for a potential top here but I don't think I can justify shorting something with this much vol while it's still 20% - 25% under the obvious resistance (Which I marked in on the original post at 8 as 100 - 110 and still think is the case).

Conceptually, I think it's a short.

Strategically, I can't short it under 100. I'd prefer to miss the trade than take the gap risk.

If I was wrong 80 but right about a downtrend, I'd expect a 20% gap. Don't want that risk.

But certainly not an advocate for being long this any more.

3月12日

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Hmm. 90 hit.

Short is getting much more tempting.

3月12日

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90 hit and it did it in that sketchy spike up move I was talking about being afraid of in the previous updates.

Maybe going to pull the trigger on this.