CYDY fizzled rally leaves long triangle consolidation

2021年3月17日

Though CYDY managed to rally over the winter from 1.85 to 7.4 on COVID trial results speculation, the 1,2,i,ii,iii nesting sequence we spotted in December never materialized into the expected sequence of higher highs iv,v,4,5 into $8 and $9. The rally stretched and distorted in time ending as a 5-wave B-wave fakeout to $7.4 in February. A sharp C-wave correction ensued as shareholders learned that the 392 patient Phase III severe/critical COVID trial had not reached clear statistical significance overall, despite promising measures on certain internal subgroups. The interim FDA head Janet Woodcock just stated that the FDA now realizes that 400-500 patient trials are just not big enough given the COVID symptom variability, something neither FDA nor Cytodyn management knew when the trial launched a year ago. So far the C-wave correction stopped on strong volume at $2 without a new low, and it doesn't have to if we consider the additional delays putting us in an extended triangle consolidation with similar, smaller D and E waves to follow into the summer. The long awaited wave III successor to the June 2020 $10 rally can then start this fall or winter.